Sundowns fall to Dortmund, but remain alive

The South African champions won many hearts in Cincinatti and beyond, after taking the lead with a Goal-of-The-Tournament contender, carelessly giving that lead away, and then battling back from a 4-1 deficit to lose by just one goal. The result leaves them 3rd in their Group with one game to play, but their fate remains in their hands going into the final Matchday. By The Numbers is a statistical review of the biggest weekend game.

Matchday 2

Coming into this fixture, many expected Sundowns to surrender most of the possession and play on the break. But for most of the first half, that played out in reverse. It was Sundowns who had most of the ball, taking the game to the Germans, with their opponents waiting to pounce on errors. Downs still had a few opportunities to score, but unfortunately did not take them. The gulf in class was shown in how Dortmund made the most of their few chances, while Sundowns were wasteful, despite taking more shots.

60% – possession by Sundowns in the 1st half (40% for Dortmund)

293 – passes completed by Downs in the first half (only 181 for the opponent)

6 – shots for Sundowns in the 1st half (only 5 for Dortmund)

100% – shooting accuracy for Dortmund (5/5)

33% – shooting accuracy for Sundowns (2/6)

Matchday 2

Gifts

“I think all of their goals are mistakes, errors from us, where at this level you get punshed .. Where we come from (the PSL) – you can get away with it.” – Ronwen Williams, after the game.

Sundowns’ average 64% possession for Sundowns at the tournament, behind only PSG, Bayern Munich, internazionale and Manchester City. Yet, the risks that come with being a possession-heavy team are always lurking underneath the surface. A momentary lapse through a heavy touch, a poor angle, or a delayed decision can allow the opposition to pounce. That is what happened on Saturday. Williams will hold himself responsible for two goals, while Teboho Mokoena and Khuliso Mudau have their fingerprints at the scene of the 2nd and 4th goals. These errors are threatening to undo their good work.

2.7 – xG for Sundowns in this game (1.7xG for Dortmund)

4.1 – xG for Sundowns in the tournament (7th highest so far)

3 – goals for Sundowns v Dortmund (only Barcelona have scored 3 v Dortmund since January)

0 – Cup games in history Sundowns have lost despite scoring three goals (until this game)

What next?

Sundowns may have lost to Dortmund, but their fate is still in their hands. They simply have to beat Fluminense on Wednesday night by any scoreline. Sundowns are now given a 36% chance to progress, down from 47% when the tournament started, showing how damaging (though not fatal) the weekend defeat has been to their chances.

The Fluminense game was always the key clash given how close the teams are on Opta’s global rankings. At the moment Downs (196) are just ahead of Fluminense (213) in the OPTA world ranking.

 If Sundowns advance, it’s River Plate or Internazionale waiting in the Last 16 (as things stand). Facing such giants could be the extra motivation that the players need.