UFC Fight Night: Usman v Buckley Predictions

There are two other ex-titleholders on the main card – former two-time strawweight queen Rose Namajunas, who takes on Miranda Maverick at flyweight, and former bantamweight ruler Cody Garbrandt, who battles Raoni Barcelos.

Plus, two unbeaten prospects will be in action in Mansur Abdul-Malik and Oumar Sy. Abdul-Malik meets Cody Brundage in a middleweight matchup and Sy squares off against Alonzo Menifield at light heavyweight.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, June 15, 4 AM SAST

Kamaru Usman (3.00) v Joaquin Buckley (1.36) (Welterweight)

One of the best welterweights of all time and the former pound-for-pound king, Usman (20-4) steps back into the Octagon for the first time since October 2023 looking to remind everyone of his greatness.

In his absence, a new contender has emerged in the young and hungry Buckley (21-6), who’s shot up to seventh place in the rankings (two below Usman) thanks to a six-fight win streak.

Will ring rust and Father Time catch up to Usman, or will “The Nigerian Nightmare” prove he’s still one of the very best at 170 pounds?

The odds are stacked against Usman. He’s now 38 and hasn’t won a fight since 2021. On a welterweight record 15-fight win streak at the time, he was dethroned by Leon Edwards in 2022 and lost the rematch to “Rocky” in 2023.

The ever-game veteran then stepped up on short notice and gave the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev all he could handle up at middleweight but dropped a majority decision. Finally ready to return, it’s difficult to say how much he has left in the tank, especially with his well-documented knee issues.

In his prime, Usman’s world-class wrestling, one-punch knockout power, superhuman gas tanks and bulletproof defence made him an unstoppable force. Renowned for the high pace he pushed, he overwhelmed almost all comers with his strength and relentlessness.

The division he once ruled has undergone a complete makeover. The new breed, led by newly minted champion Jack Della Maddalena and including Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry, Michael Morales and Buckley, has taken over.

Buckley is unbeaten since trading the 185-pound division for the 170-pound ranks and made his biggest statement yet when he stopped Usman’s old rival and former interim champion Colby Covington in December. Super explosive, the 31-year-old power puncher has 15 knockouts to his name.

“New Mansa” has all the momentum, a significant advantage in the striking department and the strength to stuff takedowns, leaving him poised to continue his hot streak and crack the top five by taking out the legendary Usman.

Prediction: Buckley by TKO.

Best Bet: Buckley by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Under 4.5 rounds at 1.75.

Rose Namajunas (1.38) v Miranda Maverick (2.95) (Flyweight)

The co-main event is a pivotal clash in the careers of both combatants.

For former two-time strawweight champion Namajunas (13-7), it’s the first time in ages that she’s fighting someone outside of the title picture.

Her goal of conquering a second division suffered a setback when she was outworked by top contender Erin Blanchfield last November. The decision loss snapped a two-fight win streak and saw her drop to seventh in the rankings.

Maverick (15-5), meanwhile, has won four on the trot to climb to 11th and, more importantly, earn herself a career-altering opportunity to take down a legend. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with an excellent wrestling base, she’s done well for herself but has never fought anyone remotely close to Namajunas’ level.

A future Hall of Famer, Namajunas is one of the greatest and beloved women’s mixed martial artists of all time. “Thug” is lightning-quick with her hands and feet, super crisp and a submission threat with a world of big-fight experience, all of which should see her bounce back.

Prediction: Namajunas by decision.

Best Bet: Namajunas by decision at 1.60.

Cody Garbrandt (2.50) v Raoni Barcelos (1.50) (Bantamweight)

Former bantamweight champion Garbrandt (14-6) will make a low-key return for the first time in over a year this weekend.

His fall from grace was one of the most drastic in UFC history, as he went from producing one of the greatest title-winning performances of all time against Dominick Cruz in 2016 to falling by the wayside.

It looked like “No Love” turned the corner when he registered back-to-back wins over Trevin Jones and Brian Kelleher in 2023, the latter of which was his 11th victory by knockout, but he lost his only outing of 2024 when ex-125-pound champion Deiveson Figueiredo submitted him at UFC 300. Still only 33, he’s rested and ready to make waves again. 

Speaking of making waves, veteran Barcelos (19-5) reminded everyone that he remains a tough out by handing highly-touted rising star Payton Talbott his first loss in January. The upset victory took the 38-year-old’s UFC record to 8-4 and sees him enter this bout as the favourite.

Speed kills and Garbrandt is set to have a significant advantage in this department, not only with his movement but his hand speed as well, which makes him an underdog worth backing.

Prediction: Garbrandt by knockout.

Best Bet: Garbrandt at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Garbrandt by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.20.

Mansur Abdul-Malik (1.11) v Cody Brundage (6.00) (Middleweight)

High on potential, Abdul-Malik puts his undefeated record on the line against Brundage.

Lethal and aggressive, Abdul-Malik is 2-0 in the UFC, having despatched Dusko Todorovic and Nick Klein, and 8-0 overall with a 100% finish rate (seven knockouts and one submission). He’s athletic, explosive and the biggest favourite on the main card. 

Whereas his opponent is a dynamic striker, Brundage is a wrestler who’ll look to lean on his grappling and experience to pull off the upset. He’s 5-5 with one no contest in the UFC and 11-6 overall.

He showed he has some power in his hands as well by knocking out Julian Marquez in March and aims to ride that momentum by making a quick turnaround.

All signs point to another stoppage win for the unbeaten Abdul-Malik, who in addition to being the superior striker and athlete, has a massive seven-and-a-half-inch reach advantage.

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by knockout.
Best Bet: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.33.
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.50.

Alonzo Menifield (1.12) v Oumar Sy (5.75) (Light Heavyweight)

Like Abdul-Malik, Sy heads into his third Octagon appearance with a flawless record and as a heavy favourite. Well-rounded, the Frenchman is 11-0 with eight finishes split evenly between knockouts and submissions.

After a first-round submission win over Tuco Tokkos in his UFC debut, the 29-year-old clocked valuable Octagon time and defeated Da Woon Jung by decision last September. Now, he gets a chance to break into the rankings.

Menifield, who has a record of 16-5-1, snapped a two-fight losing skid with a split decision win over Julius Walker in February and is stationed at No. 15 in the rankings. “Atomic” is a quality striker known for his concussive power and has 10 knockouts to his name.

While Sy is a prospect on the rise, his 37-year-old American adversary is past his prime. Add the fact that Sy will enjoy a seven-inch reach advantage and has more weapons in his arsenal, and he looks a lock to get the job done.  

Prediction: Sy by stoppage.
Best Bet: Sy by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.58.
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 2.10.