UFC Fight Night: Covington v Buckley Predictions

The co-headliner at the Amelie Arena will see featherweight veteran Cub Swanson square off against Billy Quarantillo, while top-15 flyweights Manel Kape and Bruno Silva collide in the featured bout.

Light heavyweights Vitor Petrino and Dustin Jacoby do battle, a second scrap at 205 pounds will see Navajo Stirling take on Tuco Tokkos and Adrian Yanez and Daniel Marcos meet at bantamweight.

MAIN CARD

When: Sunday, 15 December, From 05:00 AM SAST

Colby Covington (3.30) vs Joaquin Buckley (1.35) (Welterweight)

The UFC produced a shake-up for their final two events of the year. Ian Machado Garry was originally scheduled to face Buckley (20-6), however, the Irishman was moved into a No. 1 contender battle against Shavkat Rakhmonov at last weekend’s UFC 310. As a result, Covington (17-4) answered the call to headline the mixed martial arts leader’s 2024 finale. One of the biggest stars in the UFC, “Chaos” is loathed by most for his WWE-esque trash-talking persona. However, there’s nothing fake about him inside the Octagon.

The 36-year-old is a cardio machine with high-level wrestling and a world of experience at the highest level. Fighting in his home state, he might have the fans behind him for a change and returns after suffering a decision loss to Leon Edwards last December in a third failed bid to become undisputed champion.

Sixth-ranked Covington does so looking to steal Buckley’s thunder. “New Mansa” is unbeaten since moving to welterweight with a run of five wins, which includes knockouts of Vicente Luque and former two-time title challenger Stephen Thompson. Super dynamic, Buckley looks to put the icing on the cake of a breakout year with his fourth win of 2024.

Given ninth-ranked Buckley’s form, and the fact that Covington comes in on short notice, Buckley is a sizeable favourite, which suits me just fine. Yes, Covington froze up in his last fight, but he’s generally a reliable grinder of the highest order. A consummate professional, he’s always in shape, so I don’t expect conditioning to be an issue for him.

Buckley’s big and strong at 185 pounds, but all those muscles need a lot of oxygen and he’s never gone into the main event round, so it remains to be seen how he copes if the fight goes past three rounds, which I expect it to do as Covington has only been TKO’d once, by Kamaru Usman in their epic first title fight in 2019.

I love Covington at these odds and back him to grind out an important win.

Prediction: Covington by decision.
Best Bet: Covington at 3.30.
Alternative Bet: Covington by decision at 4.30.

Cub Swanson (2.36) vs Billy Quarantillo (1.61) (Featherweight)

Battle-hardened featherweights occupy the co-main event slot.

Swanson (29-14) is a dog at heart. In addition to being double tough, he’s a highly technical striker, a combination that still serves him well in the twilight of his career.

After outpointing Hakeem Dawodu last year, he lost a narrow split decision to Andre Fili in June, which showed that, even at 41, “Killer” is still a tough out.

Quarantillo (18-6) has been consistently inconsistent in the past four years, trading wins and losses in his last eight fights. Coming off a submission loss to Youssef Zalaal in March, the 36-year-old is eager to bounce back. 

“Billy Q” is solid rather than spectacular across the board but isn’t as technically proficient as his opponent. He’s generally a slow starter and picks up the pace in rounds two and three.

In a fight that could go either way, the technical and savvy Swanson is a good underdog pick.

Prediction: Swanson by decision.
Best Bet: Swanson at 2.36.
Alternative Bet: Swanson by decision at 4.00.

Manel Kape (1.26) vs Bruno Silva (3.95) (Flyweight)

No. 9-ranked Kape (19-7) is determined to preserve his place in the flyweight top 10 and rebound from his decision loss to heated rival Muhammad Mokaev, which snapped his four-fight win streak.

A former RIZIN champion, “Star Boy” is one of the rare knockout artists at 125 pounds with 11 KOs. His last stoppage win, though, came in 2021. This is the first time in three years that he’s fighting more than once a year, which is a good sign that he’s newly motivated and frothing to get back in the win column.

Silva (14-5-2) has strung together four consecutive victories, all by stoppage, to climb to 12th in the rankings. He started his streak with a TKO win over South Africa’s JP Buys and most recently knocked out Cody Durden in July.

This should be an entertaining, high-level fight. As lethal as they are, both men are defensively responsible, so odds are it’ll go the distance. Kape would’ve worked tirelessly on his takedown defence after his last fight and is more explosive on the feet, thus, he should get the better of “Bulldog”.

Prediction: Kape by decision.
Best Bet: Kape by decision at 1.95.

Vitor Petrino (1.32) vs Dustin Jacoby (3.50) (Light Heavyweight)

All eyes will be on Petrino (11-1) to see how he responds after suffering his first loss to Anthony Smith in May.

A crucial mistake saw him offer up his neck to the former title challenger who promptly synched in a guillotine choke to end his unbeaten streak.

He won’t have to worry about submission threats in this one as he faces a fellow striker in Jacoby (19-9-1). The former kickboxer has been around forever and it’s clear that he’s past his prime as he’s won just one of his last five fights.

Last time out, he was stopped by ex-title challenger Dominick Reyes, just the second knockout loss of his mixed martial arts career. “The Hanyak” will lean heavily on his experience and point-fighting ability, however, the much younger, faster and more dynamic Petrino should beat him to the punch and return to winning ways.   

Prediction: Petrino by knockout.
Best Bet: Petrino by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.10.
Alternative Bet: Petrino by decision at 4.00.

Adrian Yanez (2.70) vs Daniel Marcos (1.48) (Bantamweight)

Yanez (17-5) is nothing if not a gamer. A talented, hard-hitting striker for a bantamweight, he fought his way into the top 15 but slipped out of it following successive defeats to veterans Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez last year.

He got back in the win column with a first-round stoppage of Vinicius Salvador in May, his 11th knockout victory, and has accepted this dangerous fight in which he has a lot more to lose than to gain as his opponent is unbeaten but not well-known.

A striking specialist with half of his wins coming by knockout and the other half by decision, Marcos is 16-0 with one no-contest and coming off a decision victory over John Castaneda in June.

This has the potential to be Fight of the Night, especially if Marcos is willing to brawl. It wouldn’t be the smartest thing on his part as he doesn’t have the power Yanez does but it would make for a banger.

He’s shown good fight IQ inside the Octagon, so I expect a crisper, disciplined “Soncora” to stay unbeaten.

Prediction: Marcos by decision.
Best Bet: Marcos at 1.48.
Alternative Bet: Marcos by decision at 2.65.

Navajo Stirling (1.14) vs Tuco Tokkos (6.00) (Light Heavyweight)

Speaking of unbeaten, a prolific prospect from New Zealand plans to start his UFC career and the main card with a bang.

A member of City Kickboxing, the fighting home of former champions Alexander Volkanovski and Israel Adesanya, Stirling is 5-0 with four knockouts. From the little tape there is on him, he looks rangy and has good footwork and elbows. 

Tokkos (10-4) is looking for his first UFC win as well after losing his promotional debut to Oumar Sy by first-half submission. The Brit showed next to nothing but did come in on short notice, so this is an opportunity for him to show what he can do with a full camp.

With momentum and a three-inch reach advantage, Stirling looks set to make a successful UFC debut.

Prediction: Stirling by knockout.
Best Bet: Stirling by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.54.
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 2.10.