Who will win the Club World Cup?

For the first time in its 25-year history, the FIFA Club World Cup has been expanded to 32 teams. Early editions of the tournament have varied in frequency and number of participants, but FIFA are looking to standardise the format in the coming years with a 32-team quadrennial event.

There was a five-year gap between the 1st and 2nd tournaments at the turn of the century, and there were 8 teams in the inaugural tournament. However, seven teams have been the standard in most tournaments, including participants from all six FIFA confederations.

5 – Real Madrid have won this tournament five times, more than any other team.

Who are the favourites?

It comes as no surprise that a bunch of European teams are considered favourites for the tournament. After all, Europe has won this competition more often than any other continent. A European team has reached the final in each of the 20 previous editions, winning 16 times (80%), and finishing 2nd in the other four. However, this is an expanded competition, where European teams can eliminate each other along the way, paving the way for a non-European winner to reach the final. We’ve used the prediction model from our friends’ Opta to track and follow events throughout the tournament.

Champions League winners PSG are given an 18.5% chance of winning the tournament, with Manchester City (17.8%), German champions Bayern Munich (12.8%) and Inter (12.3%) just behind. City are the current holders, and even though they had an under-par season (by their standards), they have already added players to their star-studded squad. As a club, Real Madrid has also added to their ranks and will be keen to stamp their authority and add another crown, despite a tougher route to the final.

Who is representing Africa?

Four teams will be representing the African continent, Wydad, Esperance, Al Ahly and our own Mamelodi Sundowns. Al Ahly are given a 41% chance of progressing from Group A, featuring Portuguese giants Porto, Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami and Brazilian giants Palmeiras. The Egyptians are one of the most frequent participants at this tournament. Indeed, only one team (New Zealand’s Auckland City 12 times) has been to more World Cups than Al Ahly (10 times). They have two silver medals to show for their history. South African champions Sundowns are in Group F, along with Borussia Dortmund (Germany), Fluminense (Brazil) and Ulsan HD FC (South Korea). Masandawana are allocated a 47% chance of progressing from their Group and a 13% chance of reaching the Last 8, but the key game will be against Fluminense, as both teams should be confident of getting points against Ulsan.

Beyond Europe and Africa.

Outside traditional European giants and African representatives, there are a few lesser-known teams that could spring a surprise. In this instance, we mean lesser-known relative to their European counterparts, but followers of the global game will easily recognise these names. In particular, South American teams usually take this tournament very seriously. River Plate (12th favourite), current Brazilian league leader Palmeiras (13th favourite), and Flamengo (14th) could go deeper into the tournament with a couple of good results. Further afield, Simone Inzaghi’s Al-Hilal (Saudi Arabia) and Messi-led Inter Miami are 50/50 to progress to the next round, at least. If you’re looking for a dark horse, you can look beyond Europe and Africa.