PSG v Bayern Munich – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

PSG host Bayern Munich at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday night in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League. Mauricio Pochettino’s team ended Bayern’s 19 match unbeaten run in Europe with a 3-2 first-leg win in Germany. That was a crazy match where Die Roten had 31 shots to just six for PSG and 3.6 expected goals to just 1.7 for the visitors that evening. There is everything to play for in this match with Bayern needing a two goal victory to progress or 3-2 win to take it to extra time.

PSG Form

PSG came into the first leg in slightly weird form having lost four of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches including 1-0 at home to Lille on the eve of the Bayern game. Pochettino’s side thrashed Barcelona 4-1 away in the last round before finding themselves dominated in the home leg and quite fortunate not to escape with a 1-1 draw to progress.

Consistency is a major problem having lost 2-1 at home to Nantes then beaten title rivals Lyon 4-2 away having flown in to a 4-0 lead, before a 1-0 home loss to another title rival in Lille. They then won at Bayern Munich before a 4-1 cruise at Strasbourg this weekend having lead 3-0 at half time.

PSG Team News

PSG saw captain Marquinhos go off injured in the first leg with Danilo Pereira dropping into defence. The Brazilian will miss the match.

Leandro Paredes is back from suspension to start in central midfield but Marco Verratti is still missing with COVID-19. Pochettino rested Angel di Maria and Neymar completely over the weekend so they will be fully fresh to start. Alessandro Florenzi, Juan Bernat and Mauro Icardi remain unavailable.

PSG Motivation

PSG have a tough task knowing to approach this match. When defending a lead against Barcelona, they were caught in two minds and ended up being too open but also not attacking with conviction. In this match, they will know that a goal means Bayern need to score three times unanswered so PSG will want to carry a threat.

The first leg saw PSG camped in their own half trying to defend a barrage of shots and chances. All of their threat came on the break. Even at home, it may be a case of the same in this match.

Bayern Form

Bayern have been in superb form of late. They went into the first leg have won 14 of their previous 16 matches in all competitions and seven matches in a row. Their performance in the first meeting was very good and had Lewandowski been fit, they would no doubt have won by a big margin.

In addition to losing at home to PSG, Bayern dropped points this weekend at home to Union Berlin albeit with a couple of reserve team players starting and several injured players left out in order to recover for the second leg. Bayern’s last nine matches have seen some top performances including a 4-1 win at Lazio and a 1-0 victory at RB Leipzig.

Bayern Team News

Bayern have some serious injury problems ahead of this match. Robert Lewandowksi remains absent whilst Serge Gnabry has COVID-19 and Kingsley Coman had to be substituted at half time over the weekend.

Lucas Hernandez has a bruised rib with Jerome Boateng is having knee trouble. Media reports suggest that both will be fit to play. Niklas Sule was injured in the first half of the first leg so is absent in defence. In midfield, Leon Goretzka missed the weekend match after getting injured in the first meeting with PSG and is a major doubt. If he can’t play, then David Alaba will likely line up in central midfield with Corentin Tolisso still injured.

Bayern Motivation

Flick’s side simply have to attack but they also can’t be as naïve defensively and leave 40 metres of space for Mbappe to break into. A more measure setup would be wise and even being 1-0 with 30 minutes to go would be a great situation with a 2-0 win enough to progress to the semi finals. Should PSG score first, then expect chaos to ensue with Bayern throwing bodies forward and PSG attacking the space that they leave.

Key Stats

Bayern have won 7 of their last 9 matches, scoring 26 goals

Bayern Munich have lost just 1 of their last 20 UCL games (W18, D1)

PSG have lost 4 of their last 11 Ligue 1 matches

PSG have scored in 43 of their last 44 UCL matches (blank vs Bayern in last season’s UCL final)

Mbappe has scored 8 goals in 8 UCL matches this season

Prediction

Literally anything could happen in this match. It could be another five goal thriller or Bayern could win 2-0 in controlled fashion or PSG could win 2-0 against an injury hit Die Roten side. This match is very difficult to call but don’t rule the Germans out after their performance (if not result) in the first leg. PSG also gave up numerous chances at home to Barcelona in the last round when defending a lead.