Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host Bayern Munich at the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano on Tuesday night. Bayern have qualified and secured top spot in the group but Atletico have not secured progression yet and need a couple of points to do so. After being thrashed 4-0 in Germany in October, Diego Simeone’s side will want to take something from this match.

Atletico Form

Atleti’s start to this season in La Liga has been unbelievable. They have won seven and drawn two of their nine matches. They have conceded just two goals and are scoring more goals per match than any other team. Their last two league results were a 1-0 home win against Barcelona and a 1-0 win away at Valencia.

In Europa, Atletico have not been as good. They have one win, two draws and a 4-0 thrashing to Bayern in their four games. Even with just five points, they are likely to qualify.

Atletico Team News

Most impressive about the recent form of Diego Simeone’s side is that Luis Suarez has been missing due to Covid-19 and the coach was able to rest both Joao Felix and Yannick Carrasco down to the bench at Valencia. Felix came on at half time as the team switched from 3-4-3 back to their usual 4-4-2. For this game, it could again be a three centre back shape to give more defensive protection after being thrashed by Bayern in Germany.

Other players missing, assuming Suarez isn’t cleared to play, are Diego Costa, Hector Herrera and Lucas Torreira.

Atletico Motivation

Such is their weak group that Atleti will almost certainly qualify with two draws from the home game against Bayern and trip to RB Salzburg. In fact, even a single draw from their final game could be enough as they will finish above Lokomotik Moscow on head to head as it stands and Salzburg are four points behind them (all this assumes that Bayern Munich end with a win at home to the Russian side).

Due to this, Atleti are not likely to play an open style and more likely to sit deep and play on the break. They have been very attacking in La Liga this season but are likely to channel the Diego Simeone tactics of old.

Bayern Munich Form

Bayern are in sensational form. They have won 12 of their last 13 matches, slipping up only in a 1-1 home draw with Werder Bremen. In the Champions League, they have won all four matches including thrashing Atletico Madrid 4-0 and beating RB Salzburg 9-3 over two games.

They have been sensational and ruthless in Europa as Kingsley Coman and Robert Lewandowski have netted three times each. In their last match, they came back from 1-0 down to win 3-1 at Stuggart as Coman, Lewandowski and Douglas Costa were on target.

Bayern Munich Team News

Bayern have two big players injured as Joshua Kimmich has a knee problem and Alphonso Davies tore an ankle ligament. Against Stuttgart, all of Jerome Boateng, Corentin Tolisso, and Lucas Hernández had to be substituted and Javi Martinez also took a knock but reports are that all four should travel for this match. Whether Hansi Flick is going to play his best XI is unclear.

Bayern Munich Motivation

Bayern have already topped the group so there is really nothing to play for except momentum and pride. Flick may make a few changes to freshen things up and whilst he will want to win, there is no reason at all to go all out and waste energy. A draw would suit both parties well and neither is likely to risk losing in order to try to win.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid have won 6 of their last 8 matches

Bayern Munich have seen both teams to score in their last 7 matches

Atletico Madrid are undefeated in their last 21 home matches (16W, 5D).

Bayern Munich have won 12 of their last 13 matches

Atletico’s Joao Felix has scored 6 goals in his last 7 matches

Bayern’s Robert Lewandowski has 16 goals in his 11 appearances

Prediction

A tight game is expected with Atletico ideally wanting a result and Bayern wanting to maintain momentum. A draw looks the most likely outcome.