AC Milan v Inter Milan – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Milan host Inter Milan in Serie A on Sunday. The sides are currently separated by one point at the top of the table, making this one of the biggest Milan derbies in recent years. With the added heat of the Romelu Lukaku versus Zlatan Ibrahimovic feud, this is a game not to be missed.

Milan Form

Milan had a superb start to the season with 11 wins and four draws from their first 15 matches to start the season. Their last seven league matches have seen a significant dip in results with three defeats – 3-1 at home to Juventus, 3-0 at home to Atalanta and 2-0 away to Spezia.

The side also lost 2-1 away to Inter Milan in late January in the Coppa Italia. In their last match, with several players rested, they drew 2-2 away at Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League.

Milan Team News

Brahim Diaz remains injured in the attacking midfield area whilst Ismael Bennacer picked up an injury on Thursday night and will miss out in central midfield. Hakan Calhanoglu, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Franck Kessie were amongst the players left on the bench in Belgrade.

One big call for Stefano Pioli is at centre back where he will have to decide between on-loan Fikayo Tomori and Simon Kjaer. The latter has been carrying an injury but has greater experience alongside captain Alessio Romagnoli.

Milan Motivation

Milan know that a win will take them back to the top of the league but this feels like a must-not-lose more than anything. They won’t want Inter Milan to open a four point lead and have to be chasing.

Pioli’s side have been very reliant this season on penalties (14 won – most in top five European leagues) and set plays this season so getting the ball wide and winning set plays is likely to be a major strategy. If offered a draw right now, Milan may shake hands on one.

Inter Form

Internazionale are in great form in Serie A with just one defeat in their last 18 league matches. They have won 12 of their last 15 in Serie A. After a 2-1 defeat at Sampdoria, Antonio Conte’s team have had some big results including beat Juventus 2-0 at home.

However, Inter did lose 2-1 at home to Juventus in the Coppa Italia before a 0-0 draw in the second leg to be eliminated. In their last match, Conte’s men went top of the league with a 3-1 home victory against Lazio as Romelu Lukaku netted twice and Lautaro Martinez got the other.

Inter Team News

Inter have practically a full strength side to select from with just Arturo Vidal doubtful in midfield. Conte’s big question marks will be whether to start Christian Eriksen in his new deep lying playmaker role or goes with a more defensive option like Roberto Gagliardini.

Another similar question mark is whether to start a very adventurous left wingback in Ivan Perisic or whether Matteo Darmian or Ashley Young start for greater defensive solidity on that side.

Inter Motivation

Inter have a huge chance to open a gap at the top of the table, should they win. Conte’s side generally plays quite conservatively in the first half of matches and has to open up to attack in the second period. That is especially true when the side is trailing in matches.

Inter have scored 36 second half goals to just 18 in the first half of their matches. They have also picked up a league-high 14 points from losing positions. Therefore, Inter will attack and throw men forward if trailing but will sit deep and play pure counter attacking football when leading. A draw would be a good result but Inter may see Milan as there for the taking – certainly Lukaku will want to shut Zlatan up.

Key Stats

Milan have lost 3 of their last 7 Serie A matches

Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home Serie A matches

Inter Milan have lost just 1 of their last 18 Serie A matches

Inter Milan are Serie A’s top scorers with 54 goals

Romelu Lukaku has scored 4 goals in 4 matches against AC Milan

Milan have conceded 68% of their goals in the second half of matches

Inter have scored 66% of their goals in the second half of matches

Inter Milan have taken 14 points from losing positions this season, most in Serie A

Prediction

This could very well be a draw, but Inter Milan to win is perhaps the best bet considering their form and the very high motivation of Romelu Lukaku in attack. The odds on an away win are not particularly attractive at 1.00 so more creative bets may be needed.