MTN8 Soweto Derby – Where Will The Goals Come From?

The South African football landscape has seen many changes in the 25 years of the PSL. Clubs and players have come and gone, statuses bought and sold, and the merry-go-round continues season after season. Rinse. Repeat. Yet, there is one thing that has remained constant – the Soweto derby between Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs is still the biggest showcase, even without the fans in the ground. This will be the 170th competitive Soweto derby match played between the two sides since 1970. In the PSL era, this will be the 67th meeting between the two sides in all competitions. Pirates have won 18, Chiefs 17 and 31 matches have ended in a draw after regulation time.

Kaizer Chiefs PSL Season Preview 2020/21

It is still early days, and the sides have played only three games each in all competitions. Reading too much into these few games would be a mistake. For a significant sample size, we’d have to consider at least to start to see some trends. Even then, the personnel changes (players for Pirates, coaches for Chiefs) may be something to factor into the analysis. The one trend that has followed both sides over the last 10 or so games is the startling lack of goals for both sides. Chiefs have scored more than one goal only twice in their last 18 games. Pirates have scored more than one goal only once in their last 13 games. At least for Pirates, the defence has also held firm.

Orlando Pirates PSL Season Preview 2020/21

The case for forwards

As such, it is the forward line that we focus our attention on in this piece. Golden-Boot winner Gabadinho Mhango has already opened his account for Pirates this season and will be aiming for another major season haul. Yet, he cannot bear the sole responsibility for goals and needs some support. Last season, the team struggled to get goals when his form dipped, and his injury concerns have reemerged, even placing him in doubt for this weekend. His shot map shows the location and distance of his shots in league matches last season.

Every 2nd shot he took was on target, while every 4th shot ended in a goal. His shooting locations were excellent, most of them taken inside the box. If Pirates can create the chances, they have a lethal frontman who can tuck them away regularly. After selling Luvuyo Memela, Zinnbauer must have a tactical plan in store for where that creativity will come from.

The absence of Samir Nurkovic

In the absence of injured Samir Nurkovic, Chiefs will be looking to Khama Billiat and Leonardo Castro to provide the goals upfront. Three games have resulted in three goals, but none of them have been from an open-play goal (two set-pieces and own-goal). A David-De-Gea performance from Veli Mothwa against Chippa (he wasn’t awarded MOTM strangely) and three times striking the woodwork suggest something may have clicked in Chiefs’ last game. A Chippa without a shot on target is probably not the right yardstick to compare with. After mustering 20+ shots, Chiefs needed an own-goal to break the deadlock. The story may have been different with the deadly Serbian upfront. Nurkovic’s shot map, highlighting his shot locations, goal conversion rate and their shot/goal distances is a reminder of what Chiefs will be missing upfront for the coming weeks.

Some differences between Nukovic and Mhango’s shot are the nearness of Nurkvoic’s goals and the substantial shot action on the inside channels, especially on the right. These could stem from team tactics and where Nurkovic is instructed to play. The Serbian is happy to pull the trigger as soon as he gets in the box. Nurkovic’s goals are also closer to goal, as these were mostly headers or the end of set-piece deliveries and moves. Half of his goals came from set-piece situations.

The clash between the sides in February was another close affair, and perhaps a sign of things to come. Chiefs won the match 1-0, although Pirates would consider themselves unlucky to have lost that game. We’ve used an Expected Goals (xG) chart to look at the two team’s last meeting together. The xG shot map above shows the two teams’ shot locations in that match, highlighting whether shots have been taken in good locations. The map also emphasizes the quantity and quality of chances the teams managed to create. While xG is a useful tool, there are some disadvantages to using a single games’ xG t\as a predictive measure. We’ve added it here to show how much Pirates created in that match, compared to Chiefs, even if they lost the game. Should Pirates create as many chances as they did here, perhaps, they can take a healthy advantage into the quarter-final second leg.