Pirates’ Stable Defence & Their Attacking Concerns

Even in what has been a very open season so far, Sundowns remain the team to beat. League table aside, Orlando Pirates are getting whispered as the nearest challengers to the hegemony. Yet, at the same stage last season, SuperSport were the nearest to Sundowns at the top, only to finish the season in eighth, securing that on the final day. That’s not to say things will go the same way, only to caution that the season is still young (we’re 25% in to be exact). But there are some positive takeaways at this stage.

The Buccaneers have the league’s joint-best defensive record seeing as they are one of three teams to have conceded just three goals (Richards Bay and TS Galaxy are the others). But more impressively, (and this is a better predictor of the future), they also currently have the league’s best underlying defensive numbers.

Best xGA per 90 – PSL
Team	xGA
Pirates	0.68
Sundowns	0.82
Royal AM	0.95
Marumo	0.95
Maritzburg	0.99
Arrows	1.03

Pirates look to be on solid ground when it comes to Expected Goals Against (xGA), with a league-low 0.68 xGA per match. xGA is a measure of the likelihood of opposition shots ending up as a goal. Put simply, Pirates have set up to concede one goal every game and a half. Should this hold throughout the season, Pirates would concede somewhere in the region of 21 goals. Last season, Sundowns averaged 0.58xGA at this stage (despite not conceding). They ended the season with 20 goals conceded.

Given that a new coach (one that is also new to the league) is at the helm, the players seem to have quickly taken on board some of the defensive concepts of his approach. Days will come when they face clinical strikers that turn that 0.68xG into two goals. But for now, this defence has helped get an early points haul that provides some breathing room ahead of an October fixture list that features a Soweto derby. 

They were already looking good in the defensive numbers towards the end of last season. As the xG difference rolling average below indicates, the gap between quality of chances created (green) and conceded (red) was heading in the right direction. In fact, Riviero found this gap at its biggest in the last three years. So, he’s done well to keep the xGA numbers low.

It all looks very promising, but it is probably fair to ask at what cost such defensive strength comes. The trade-off is often a sacrifice in attacking play, and there is a case here compared to recent seasons, first under Josef Zinnbauer and then Mandla Ncikazi at Fadlu Davids. In each of the last two seasons, the team has managed a higher goal per game, shots on target per game and an xG per game after the first quarter.

Per 90	This seasonMD1 – MD8	Last seasonMD1 – MD8	2021/22MD1 – MD8
Goals	0.75	1	1.125
xG	0.94	1.1	1.94
SoT	2.5	3.8	5.4

Pirates have never been great goalscorers – the last time they ended as the top-scoring team was in 2014/15. You have to go back as far as 2001 for the next. Having said that, they were not top scorers when they won three of their four titles, as low as the 7th highest scorers when lifting the league title in 2010/11. When pressed about goal scoring recently, Jose Riviero was quick to point out that he is not concerned. He alluded to the fact that as long as they continue to end their attacks with six players in the box, the goals will come. But how often do they end up in the box is the next question? This is a small sample size but a comparison with the final eight games of last season shows a marked difference (stats per 90 minutes).

	This seasonMD1 – MD8	Final 8 games of last season
Entrances into the opposition half	61	75
Entrances into the final third	38	47
Entrance into the penalty box	14	17

Beyond how often they get there (think later about how many people get in the box), what happens when they do? While shot numbers have remained constant, we’ve already shown a decline in shots on target per game compared to the same period last season. The quality of chances is also a concern, 0.99xG per game ranks Pirates 10th in the league. Defensive soundness matched with a drop in attacking output is not a problem on its own. It only becomes a concern when the limited output is wasted. Then you’re setting yourself up for a tough road ahead. So far this season, 2.5 shots on target a game is the lowest in the league. On top of that, they have the lowest shot accuracy in the division (26%). These are numbers that simply need to improve.

Sundowns may continue to drop points, and the first quarter results suggest that this may be possible. Even if they don’t, the second quarter / World Cup break will be a better time to sit and judge Pirates’ title credentials. In Q1, Pirates fixture list had teams that finished 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th last season. Looking at xG numbers as well, one can safely say they have faced some of the weaker attacks in the league (a side like TS Galaxy averages 0.6 xG per game). We may see the average shot quality conceded increase when they come up against better teams, evening out the impressive defensive numbers. If and when that happens, Riviero will need to have found a way of bringing sharpness to an attack that has struggled to put away the few chances they are creating.