Five Trends in PSL Betting Results Without Fans

This past weekend Sundowns and Supersport drew 0-0 on Saturday in the Tshwane derby, before AmaZulu and Maritzburg drew 0-0 in the KZN derby. The last goalless draw in the DSTV Premiership was on 21 November 2020, when Swallows FC and TS Galaxy shared the spoils without any goals scored.

55 – There were 55 games played between the Swallows v TS Galaxy goalless draw in November 2020 and the Sundowns-Supersport goalless draw this past weekend, the highest number of games played between two 0-0 draws in a PSL season.

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The scarcity of 0-0 draws this season (only five at this stage of a season is the fewest in PSL history) prompted a lot of questions, as we wondered how match results (in betting terms) have differed significantly this season. We set out to answer that question, and in exploring the results data, we also wanted to see if there were significant differences in results when football is played with fans (before Covid-19) & without fans (after Covid-19). 

We used percentages mostly, as the sample sizes (e.g pre-lockdown, bio-bubble etc) all had differing numbers of games played. For reference, the different periods covered are as follows:

Pre-lockdown – the 186 matches played in the 2019/20 season before the pandemic.

Bio-bubble – the 54 matched in the bio-bubble.

2020/21 season – the 87 matches played this season.

Post lockdown – the 141 matches played in both the bio-bubble and the 2020/21 season.

Below are five things that the results data points to.

Home Wins Remain Largely Constant

Before the start of last season, the full collection of nearly 6000 PSL matches (23 seasons) had produced the following results: Home wins 41%, Away wins 28% and 30% of matches ended in draws. We can consider this to represent the average, with only six seasons going lower than 40% and six seasons going above 43% when considering home wins, for example.

Pre-lockdown results indicated the 2019/20 season was already among the higher percentage home win seasons, as 46% of matches ended with a home win. By the end of the season, that percentage for the whole season was down to 45%, with the last quarter of the season played in a biologically safe controlled environment. The 38% home win ratio post-lockdown is lower than the all-time average but not that far off the 41% all-time average.

A Significant Decrease in Away Wins

While home wins remain stable, it looks like there has been a significant change in the proportion of matches ending as away wins in the same period. One would have expected the absence of fans to give away teams more confidence & improved results, but this does not show here. Only 22% of matches have ended in away wins post-lockdown.

At the start of the 2019/20 season (pre-lockdown), the percentage of away wins resembled the PSL all-time average (28%). However, post lockdown there was a 6% drop in away wins (from 28% to 22%). Isolated bio-bubble results may have little bearing to Home-Away results, given that teams played in a controlled environment with all 54 matches in Gauteng. That said, there is a difference between away wins in the bio-bubble (21%) and in the 2020/21 season (24%), when teams returned to “normal grounds”, but the difference is minor (3%).

Recognizable Increase in Draws

If home wins remain stable, one would expect the decrease in away wins to correspond with the increase in drawn matches. Indeed, draws increased from 26% of matches in 2019/20 pre-lockdown to 39% of matches post-lockdown. Considering that the home win ratio in 2019/20 was already high pre-lockdown, a better indicator of where we stand would be comparing post-lockdown draw percentages with the PSL average (30%). Even then, 39% of post-lockdown draws indicates a significant increase (41% in the bio-bubble).

Interesting Trends on Stadium Locations

The bio-bubble games were all played in Gauteng, with teams allocated home and away venues across Johannesburg and Pretoria. The 54 matches played produced about twice as many home wins (22) as away wins (10). For every four home wins, we saw approximately two away wins.

PSL 2020/21 Trends

As teams have returned to their respective home grounds and away teams have to travel, the ratio of home wins to away wins is a bit narrower (33 to 21). Now, for every three home wins, we started to see two away wins.

Since the start of the new year, however, there have been as many home wins as away wins in the top-flight (eight each), meaning for every home win in 2021, we get to see one away win as well. That said, we are only 35% into the season, and further analysis may be due as the season progresses.

Less Goalless Draws

Goals per game have increased in the 2020/21 season, and exceed any of the last four full seasons. The goal per game ratio has increased compared to the bio-bubble which gave us a measly 1.94 goals per game. Fitness issues & end of season dead rubbers may have contributed to this poor return, but the 2020/21 season has started well.

While we indicated that draws have increased proportionately, most of these happen to be scoring draws. 82 of the 87 matches this season have seen at least one goal scored, with just five matches ending goalless, including two this past weekend.

5 – Five goalless draws after 87 games is the joint-lowest at this stage of a PSL season in the PSL era.