By the Numbers: DSTV Premiership – Matchday 3

As part of our By The Numbers this week, we take a much closer look at two games from the past weekend. Having seen Sundowns blow Chiefs away, Orlando Pirates could not take advantage against Chippa, missing out on the chance to go level on points with three other table toppers. As usual, we dig beyond the score lines to look at some of the numbers that may not have seen the public eye.

Kaizer Chiefs v Mamelodi Sundowns

A lot of us, myself included, felt that the Chiefs-Sundowns game would be a very close affair. This was the 10th time since 2001 that Sundowns were coming into this particular fixture on the back of a loss, and they’d only won one of the previous nine. But they easily prevailed on the day, cruising to a 4-0 win you’d associate with a game against Chippa, not Chiefs. Yet, 4-0 was a bit of a flattering scoreline, given other statistical measures on the day. Let’s start with Chiefs:

Chiefs’ Attacking

12 – shots by Kaizer Chiefs on the afternoon (2 on target)

17% – Shot on target percentage by Chiefs (their lowest in a game this season)

17% – Shot on target percentage by Chiefs (their second lowest in a game this year)

A combination of desperation and profligacy leads to such numbers. For wastefulness, see Reeve Frosler and Khama Billiat’s penalty miss. For desperation, see Yusuf Maart and Dillon Solomons taking 0.01xG shots in the hope of salvaging some pride. Statistically, these are shots from positions where a goal is scored once in a  hundred attempts.

The combination of the two certainly doesn’t help when your opponents are having a hot finishing day, and not taking a single shot from outside the box.

Sundowns Attacking

7 – shots by Sundowns that afternoon (4 on target)

7 – shots taken by Sundowns (their joint-lowest number in a game this year)

57% – Shots on target percent by Sundowns (their 3rd highest in a game this year)

0.94 – non-penalty xG for Sundowns (their 5th lowest non-penalty xG this year, 16 league games)

Chiefs gifted Sundowns some openings, but the fact remains, Sundowns were clinical with the gifts. From Gaston Sirino beating Bruce Bvuma to the ball by less than a second to Shalulile converting a penalty where Billiat failed, the differences were marginal. To take a meagre seven shots (their lowest all year) and score four goals (their second highest all year) is the kind of freak combination that won’t happen too often. Last week we highlighted how Sundowns rarely come from trailing at half-time. At 2-0 up in the first 20 minutes, Downs had Chiefs exactly where they wanted them. Yet, as much as The Brazilians didn’t create much on the day, they didn’t need to, as the gifts gave them a big advantage.

Orlando Pirates v Chippa Utd

If Chiefs had an issue of wastefulness the day before, Pirates took it to the next level. Often one of the most one-sided fixtures in the league, Chippa v Pirates was going according to plan, except without the goals. We highlighted in our preview that Chippa have recently been content with picking up draws on the road (they came into this on the back of 4 successive away draws, 3 of them goalless). That conservative plan seemed to stick, leading to a passing network like this.

And so they sat back, on average only exploring just beyond the halfway line. Daine Klate clearly thought his best chance at success was to allow Pirates more of the possession and wait for the odd moment to sneak a goal. And that’s what happened, with all their chances coming either from set-pieces (3) or counter-attacks (1). In the end, an innocuous corner led to the late winner.

66% – Pirates ball possession (their 2nd highest in a match this year, 27 games all comps)

33% – Chippa ball possession (their 3rd lowest in a game this year, 13 matches)

8 seconds – average duration of ball possession for Chippa (their lowest in a match this year)

Contrast this with Pirates’ passing network below, illustrating clear intent going forwards via Deon Hotto & Thembinkosi Lorch towards Peprah.

15 – shots for Orlando Pirates in this game (their most in a game this season)

4 – shots for Chippa in this game

Having said that, Chippa created only four chances, but those four chances were valuable ones. All of them came in the box, beyond the penalty spot. So that despite the shot differential (15 to 4), Chippa actually created a decent xG number over the course of the match (1.17 to Pirates’ 1.54xG)

1.17 – Chippa’s xG in this game (their highest in an away game this year, 7 games)

1 – This is the 1st time this year Chippa created an xG higher than 1 in an away game

New coach Jose Riviero may be pleased with the attacking performance, even if the result did not match. But the chances they gave up at the back may also be a cause of concern. Ultimately it doesn’t matter if your forwards are clinical, but on days when they are not, those vulnerabilities can be fully exploited. This happened on Sunday – culminating in a late Chippa winner from a similar position & situation they had earlier in the game.