The Khanyisa Mayo after effect at Cape Town City FC

The team secured a vital victory over Chippa United last weekend, giving them a much-needed boost ahead of a two-week break. They will close out their calendar year with a home fixture against AmaZulu FC on December 29th.

After the Chippa United game, head coach Eric Tinkler was quick to emphasize the importance of the result rather than the team’s overall performance. However, a deeper look into the performances reveals much about the season so far.

A Familiar Start
Historically, Cape Town City has struggled to begin league campaigns strongly. Since the 2018/19 season, their best return from the first ten games has been 16 points, achieved in both the 2020/21 and 2023/24 seasons. This season, with 11 points from nine matches, the club can only reach a maximum of 14 points if they secure a victory over AmaZulu.

From an analytical standpoint, their points tally aligns closely with their expected points (xPts), suggesting that their results mirror the quality and quantity of chances they have created and conceded. But there is a notable difference in how the team is performing compared to last season: Khanyisa Mayo, their star striker, is no longer leading the line-up front.

Attack – The Mayo Effect

Mayo’s departure has left Cape Town City struggling to fill the void up front. While the team’s results are consistent with statistical expectations, the shift in their attacking approach would raise questions about the absence of their talisman upfront.

He was one of the top strikers in the league for consecutive seasons. In the 2022/23 campaign, he shared the Golden Boot with Sundowns’ Peter Shalulile, netting 12 league goals. The following season, he scored eight goals before making a high-profile move to Algerian club CR Belouizdad.

The issue lies in multiple factors: the quantity and quality of shots Mayo provided are sorely missed, and the striking force is now overly reliant on Amadou Soukouna, a 32-year-old past his prime, or 22-year-old Namibian international Prins Tjiueza, who is still developing.

In contrast, Mayo was at the ideal stage of his career at 26, entering his prime. Both current striker options are taking shots at a far lower rate than Mayo did and also at a lower quality.

This decline is reflected in the team’s attacking output. Cape Town City currently ranks 15th in the league for total shots taken, highlighting their lack of creativity and finishing power. Mayo’s numbers underline the gulf: in his final season at the club, he averaged 2.75 shots per game, scoring 10 goals from 77 shots with an expected goals (xG) of 11.93 across 28 matches and 2,198 minutes.

By comparison, Jaedin Rhodes, another key forward, averaged just 1.76 shots per game, scoring six goals from 51 shots with an xG of 6.96 across 29 matches and 2,040 minutes. While Rhodes is still at the club, he has not yet found his feet this season.

Underlying Metrics

The 5-match rolling average of expected goals (xG) created (green) and conceded (red) highlights Cape Town City’s inconsistency in attack and defense. When the green areas dominate, the team creates higher-quality chances than they concede, suggesting offensive control and defensive stability.

However, there are clear stretches where the red dominates, showing the team is conceding better chances than they are creating. This inconsistency is likely exacerbated by the absence of a reliable forward like Khanyisa Mayo, who contributed significantly to both the quantity and quality of shots taken.

Notably, periods with fewer green areas coincide with their struggles to convert opportunities or control matches. Without a proven striker to consistently capitalize on chances, the team’s attack is underperforming, contributing to these dips in performance.

The decline in shots and overall xG further reinforces the void left up front since Mayo’s departure.

What is next for CT City?

With a significant break before their next fixture, coach Eric Tinkler has a valuable opportunity to reassess his squad and experiment with new approaches to reignite Cape Town City’s struggling attack. Whether that means tactical tweaks, giving emerging talent more responsibility, or reshuffling the forward line.

The January transfer window also looms on the horizon, offering a potential solution to their striking woes. Whether the club will look to dip into the market for reinforcements remains to be seen.

If they opt against signing a proven forward, the problems are already quite clear: the absence of a consistent goal threat, coupled with a reliance on players either past their prime or still developing, continues to hinder Cape Town City’s progress.