Podcast – Value x Exotic Bets: Multis, Goalscorers, BTTS & More

We are back with value punter as we hunt the top leagues in Europe for VALUE, VALUE and more VALUE. As usual, we focus on the goalscorer markets and this week we are tipping some big names with some exotics as well. Brenton’s favourite market BTTS and Match-Winner has the usual six legs. And then we finish with two trebles, a conservative one and a value one.

Goalscorers

• Raheem Sterling v Watford | 11 goals in 9 matches | This is the type of game he cashes in | Scored in a 3-1 win earlier this year | Hatrick v Norwich earlier this year | 6.00 to score two or more | 1.95 AGS
• Diogo Jota (1.95 AGS) or Luis Diaz (3.30 FGS) | Jota to score with a header?
• Robert Lewandowski | Best G/90 & xG/90 in Europe | 22 goals in 15 Bundesliga appearances v Dortmund | Hattrick in this fixture last season |   3.00 2 Goals or more | 8.25 Hattrick

BTTS & Match Winner

• Bayern Munich (1.41) v Borussia Dortmund (6.50) | Sat 18:30 | Last 5 H2Hs have seen over 2.5 & BTTS | Bayern have won last 7 meetings
• St Etienne (3.85) v Monaco (1.76) | Sat 19:00 | Monaco in great form won last 5 | St Etienne trying hard to save themselves | Both have something to play for
• Cambuur (7.50) v PSV (1.32) | Sat 21:00 | PSV have won last 7 H2Hs (5 saw BTTS) | Cambuur BTTS in 13/14 Home matches | PSV drew 3-3 at the weekend (from 3-0 down)
• Adelaide United (1.37) v Perth Glory (7.25) | Sun 09:05 | Perth have scored in 6/7 away | Adelaide have conceded 7/8 | Last 6 H2Hs have seen BTTS
• Empoli (5.25) v Napoli (1.64) | Sun 15:00 | Empoli have best BTTS record at home (81%) | Last 3 Napoli away have seen BTTS & Napoli win | Last 4 H2Hs at Stadio Carlo Castellani have seen BTTS
• Basel (1.71) v Luzern (3.85) | Sun 16:30 | BTTS in 13/14 away games for Luzern | Basel averaged 4.5 GPG before 0-0 draw at the weekend | Last 6/7 H2Hs have had BTTS 

BTTS Multi @ 17.80

BTTS & Match Winner @ 590.30

Best Bets

Rizespor (4.55) v Fenerbahce (1.66) | Fri 19:30

• Fenerbahce let us down in the BTTS Match winner last week, but only because they were too good for Goztepe
• Have won 5 on the trot in the league | Currently in the second Champions League spot
• Rizespor pretty much gone | 10 points from safety with 5 games to go | Could go down this weekend
• Fenerbahce have won last 6 H2Hs most recently 4-0
• Away win @ 1.66

Freiburg (1.86) v Monchengladbach (3.90) | Sat 15:30

• Freiburg have won last 4 Home H2Hs 
• Also won the reverse 6-0 in December with all six goals coming in the first half
• Relative form looks positive for Freiburg with only Leipzig in better form
• Won last 3/4 home matches scoring 3 goals in each of those wins
• Only blip was 4-1 loss to Bayern
• Home win @ 1.86

Braga (3.90) v Porto (1.74) | Mon 19:00

• Porto have dropped just 8 points all season | Won 7-0 at the weekend
• Unbeaten in 30 matches
• Conceded just 19 goals overall & 10 in 15 away matches
• Won the reverse fixture 1-0 thanks to a Luis Diaz goal
• Braga have had six losses this season, all to teams in the top 7
• Away win @ 1.74

Treble @ 5.34

Salernitana (5.25) v Fiorentina (1.62)

Value Bets

Gaziantep (1.90) v Göztepe (3.65) | Sat 15:00

• Goztepe cost us last week as they failed to score
• Firmly in relegation battle, Gaziantep safe
• Gaziantep have 3rd best home record in Super Lig (W10, D5, L1)
• Goztepe have lost last 5 away matches
• Home win looks a bit long @ 1.90

Bournemouth (2.25) v Fulham (2.85) | Sat 16:00

• Fulham secured promotion with 3 points v Preston
• Fulham have had recent blips – against Coventry & Derby
• Bournemouth have also had recent wobbles but bounced back v Coventry at the weekend (3-0)
• Cherries can all but secure promotion with a win
• Home win @ 2.25

Bayern (1.41) v Dortmund (6.50) | Sat 18:30

• Bayern can take the title with a win
• Bayern have won last 7 H2Hs, scoring 4+ goals in six of those fixtures
• Last five meetings – 2-3, 1-3, 4-2, 2-3, 2-3
• Dortmund injuries
• Either way, there should be goals – Over 4.5 @ 2.40 & Over 5.5 @ 3.80

Treble @ 10.07