La Liga Title Race: The Tale of the Tap

With Barcelona’s La Liga title hopes hanging by a thread, the excitement in the Atlético Madrid camp is palpable, but a first title triumph since the miracle of 2013/14 is not yet beyond doubt.

Real Madrid linger in their city rivals’ rear-view mirror and can close the gap to two points and leapfrog Barcelona into second with a win over Granada tonight.

However, Atlético have good reason to be optimistic. Although the season has taken several twists and turns, it is no coincidence that Los Rojiblancos are odds-on favourites to clinch the crown.

Remaining Fixtures and Permutations

Atléti are set to host mid-table Osasuna on Sunday before visiting relegation-threatened Valladolid a week later.

It took a poor run of form from Diego Simeone’s men to blow the title race open after they looked to have it in the bag. However, they have recovered somewhat with wins over Elche and Real Sociedad with a draw away to Barcelona sandwiched in between.

After their visit to 10th-placed Granada, Real Madrid will travel to Athletic Bilbao, another mid-table side. They will close their season at home to Europa League finalists Villarreal, who are currently seventh.

Barcelona will host eighth-placed Celta Vigo before travelling to the bottom-of-the-table Eibar, but if Atléti wins either of their two fixtures, then Barça will be out of the equation.

If Real Madrid finish level on points with either of their title rivals at the top of the standings, they will clinch the title by virtue of a superior head-to-head record. The six points they have picked up against Barcelona and the four against Atlético this season take precedence over their inferior goal difference compared to their rivals, unlike in the Premier League.

Atlético, having picked up four points against Barcelona, would finish ahead of Ronald Koeman’s side if they were level on points.

In the unlikely event that all three teams were level on points, Real Madrid would be champions, Atlético runners-up, and Barcelona third.

Real Madrid’s Injury Woes

The return of José María Giménez and Renan Lodi handed Diego Simeone a timely boost in the title race, while rival Zinedine Zidane seemingly cannot catch a lucky break.

Sergio Ramos, Raphael Varane, Nacho and Ferland Mendy are all set to miss the Granada clash.

“The first team is important, but also Castilla, who are playing a lot,” Zidane said in a pre-match press conference.

“But, if we need players then we’ll always take players from the B team.

“I think that’s good for everything. I’m in total communication with Raúl about these things.”

Real Madrid’s form has suffered as a result of their injury woes. They have won one of their last five games in all competitions and it took a fortuitous stoppage-time equaliser from Eden Hazard to salvage a point on Sunday against Sevilla.

Any more dropped points could be a death blow for Los Blancos with Atlético waiting to pounce on any costly mistakes.

The Verdict

Real Madrid are paying 3.75 to win the title, with Barcelona at 33.00. Although there is big money to be made in any potential late twist, it is difficult to see past Atlético, who are stabilising at a crucial point in the run-in.

Current standings:

1. Atlético Madrid 80 pts (36 games) GD +40

2. Barcelona 76 pts (36 games) GD +47

3. Real Madrid 75 pts (35 games) GD +34

4. Sevilla 74 pts (36 games) GD +23

Prediction:

1. Atlético Madrid

2. Real Madrid

3. Barcelona

4. Sevilla