Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid at the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday night. Diego Simeone’s team are already six points clear of Real Madrid having played one less match and could strike a real blow to Zinedine Zidane’s team chances of retaining the La Liga title.

Atletico Form

Diego Simeone’s team have made a superb start to La Liga. They won eight and drawn two matches with just two goals conceded. That has come despite having to rest players ahead of recent Champions League matches as their situation was precarious in Europe.

In the end, they beat Salzburg 2-0 away on Wednesday night to qualify having taken just six points from their first five group matches. Mario Hermoso and Yannick Carrasco scored the goals.

In La Liga, they not only have the best defensive record but they have also scored more goals per game (some teams have games in hand) than anyone else in the league

Atletico Team News

An impressive part of Atletico’s start to the season has been that they had to deal with both Luis Suarez and Lucas Torreira missing games due to COVID-19. Both are now fully back in the picture.

In defence, top centre back Jose Gimenez injured his knee and will be missing for a month but the side simply responded with consecutive clean sheets without him. Geoffrey Kondogbia is back for this match as he was ineligible for the Champions League and boosts the midfield options.

Diego Costa is still expected to be injured but Atletico won’t really miss him with Joao Felix and Luis Suarez up front plus plenty of other goalscoring options in reserve.

Atletico Motivation

Atletico Madrid will play to win this match. Their free flowing style from earlier in the season has been seen less in recent weeks with matches against Barcelona and must-win Champions League clashes. They are likely to stick with the 3-5-2 shape and absorb pressure as Simeone sides are so adept at doing.

The side can now easily move between 4-4-2 and 3-5-2 with a single substitution and Simeone will be constantly adjusting tactics in this match. Even if they park the bus, it will still be with the intention to win 1-0 and not necessarily to play for a draw.

Real Madrid Form

Madrid’s form has been a mess. After consecutive home defeats to Cadiz and Shakhtar in October, they responded well. Three wins and a draw followed in their next four including victories against Barcelona and Inter Milan.

They then had a run of three defeats in five matches including 4-1 away at Valencia and 2-1 at home against Deportivo Alaves. Things looked bad for Zidane’s future but once again, the side has arrested their slump. They beat Sevilla 1-0 away on Saturday before a 2-0 home win against Monchengladbach to top their Champions League group.

Real Madrid Team News

Zidane had Sergio Ramos fit again to face Monchengladbach and the side immediately looked more solid. Eden Hazard remains a major doubt but could be on the bench for this match. With him likely to be missing as a starting option and Luca Jovic injured yet again, there isn’t much room to freshen up the attack.

Luka Modric was sublime in the last match but it will be a tough ask for him to play at the same level three days later at the age of 35. Dani Carvajal could come in with Lucas Vazquez moving forward perhaps.

Real Madrid Motivation

Real need a win to close the six point gap to Atletico at the top but this is really a must-not-lose match. Keeping the gap as is would at least mean Simeon’s side are still somewhat at arm’s length. Therefore a relatively conservative Real Madrid approach is expected and if Modric is able to start, then it could be him, Casemiro and Toni Kroos as three deeper lying players to cover counter attacks and try to control the match with possession.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten at home since December 2019 in all competitions

Atleti are 17 home La Liga matches without defeat

Real Madrid have won 1 of their last 4 La Liga matches

Real Madrid are 5 matches unbeaten against Atletico, keeping 4 clean sheets

Atleti have kept clean sheets in each of their last 5 home La Liga matches

Prediction

This looks likely to be a very tight affair based on recent Madrid derbies. I think a draw is the most likely outcome.