Italy v France – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Gli Azzurri earned a historic 3-1 victory in Paris in September, their first win in the city in 70 years. Both teams have already secured progress to the next round, but a draw would ensure France finishes top of the group.

Italy Form

Italy has bounced back impressively from their round-of-16 exit at the Euros. In the Nations League, they boast four wins and a draw from five matches. Their campaign began with a 3-1 comeback victory in France, followed by a 2-1 “away” win over Israel.

Despite playing with ten men for 50 minutes, Italy surrendered a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2 against Belgium. They then claimed a dominant 4-1 victory over Israel (producing 2.77 xG) and secured a fine 1-0 win in Belgium on Thursday night, creating 2.48 xG while conceding just 0.52 xG.

Italy Team News

Luciano Spalletti is building a rejuvenated Italy side, and it appears Jorginho is no longer in his plans. The team is missing several key players for this FIFA break, including Federico Chiesa, Gianluca Scamacca, and defender Riccardo Calafiori.

Rotation is possible for this match. Moise Kean may feature in the starting XI to freshen up the attack, while Destiny Udogie and Manuel Locatelli are strong options if further changes are needed.

Italy Motivation

Confidence is high under Spalletti, with the players beginning to embrace his tactical ideas. While Italy has already qualified, they will aim to secure the top spot with at least a draw.

Italy seeks to maintain possession under Spalletti’s system but can also shift into a solid defensive shape, utilizing a 5-4-1 or a midfield diamond when required.

France Form

France’s 2-1 defeat to Spain in the Euro semi-finals was just their second loss in 15 matches. They opened their Nations League campaign with a 3-1 home loss to Italy but rebounded with a 2-0 victory over Belgium, during which they registered 25 shots and conceded just 0.56 xG.

Subsequent wins included a 4-1 triumph over Israel in Budapest and a 2-1 victory in Belgium, though they allowed 2.69 xG and 20 shots in the latter match. On Thursday, France struggled to convert opportunities, drawing 0-0 at home against Israel despite creating six big chances from 24 shots.

France Team News

France is without several key players. Kylian Mbappé is absent after a reported fallout with the coach. Eduardo Camavinga is suspended, Aurélien Tchouaméni is not selected, and Ousmane Dembélé is sidelined with an injury.

Randal Kolo Muani is likely to lead the line, with Warren Zaïre-Emery providing support. If changes are needed, Christopher Nkunku, Kingsley Coman, and Marcus Thuram are viable attacking options.

France Motivation

Didier Deschamps’ approach tends to be cautious against strong opponents, and this match is expected to follow suit.

France is struggling for confidence in attack, with the absences of Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann significantly affecting their threat. A 0-0 draw would likely be an acceptable outcome for Les Bleus.

Key Stats

Italy has won 4 of their last 5 matches.

Italy won their last match against France (but lost the previous 3, all featuring BTTS).

France has lost 2 of their last 6 matches (after losing just 2 of the prior 18).

France has scored 8 goals in their last 4 matches (compared to 5 goals in the 8 matches before that).

France has kept 8 clean sheets in their last 12 matches.

Verdict

Based on current form, Italy looks like the slight favorite. However, France remains very strong defensively and could grind out a 0-0 stalemate. A high-scoring match seems unlikely.