By The Numbers: Morocco’s Historic Win v Belgium

The second round of matches has seen a massive improvement in results for African teams. Although Tunisia lost 1-0 to Australia, Senegal edged Qatar 3-1 and Morocco beat Belgium 2-0 to make it two wins for African teams in 8 games. That’s already 50% of the wins our continent has ever managed in a single tournament (4 each in 2002 & 2010). The Morocco win was the most impressive of the two, and here we go through a statistical breakdown of how they managed this.

The Atlas Lions Are Happier With Less Possession At This Tournament…

From the onset, Croatia & Belgium were seen as the best sides in this group. Ranked 2nd in the world, Belgium were the favourites to progress, with Croatia touted for second. At Opta, their predictor only gave Morocco a 30% chance of progressing, with Croatia twice as likely (63%). The FiveThirtyEight model was much closer, giving Croatia a 54% chance of progressing, just ahead of Morocco’s 46%. Today, both models give Morocco a 9 in 10 chance of progressing. 

And this is after their toughest games. Morocco have been happy (if not forced) to cede possession to the European giants, but have flipped the script in the process.

33% – Morocco possession in game against Belgium

35% – Morocco possession in game against Croatia

34% – average possession for Morocco at the tournament, the 3rd lowest in Qatar (behind Costa Rica & Iran)

In a sense, they’ve had to adapt to the opposition. One wonders how they’ll set up against Canada, a side they’re favoured to beat. If the AFCON stats are anything to go by (where Morocco were favourites in most games), we could see something different.

46% – Morocco’s lowest possession figure at AFCON (v Egypt)

61% – average possession for Morocco in the Africa Cup of Nations

…But Have To Be Clinical Up Front

With Hakimi & Ziyech on the team, the threat from set pieces is obvious for Morocco. In this game, their depth in this department showed as Abdelhamid Sabiri came off the bench to rifle a free kick home for the opener. Set pieces are a great thing to have as part of your artillery when not much is going your way in open play.

0.6 – xG for Morocco in the game against Belgium

0.45 – average xG for Morocco in the tournament, the third lowest of all teams (ahead of Holland & Costa Rica)

…And Solid At The Back

Morocco are on a run of six consecutive clean sheets (since Lyle Foster’s goal for Bafana Bafana in June). In fact, they have kept five clean sheets since the appointment of Walid Regragui as their head coach on 31 August. Alongside Poland, they are the only teams that have played more than once and are yet to concede a goal and play twice at Qatar 2022.

2006 Ghana were the last African team to win two group games at the World Cup. This feat is well within reach for Morocco when they come up against Canada on Thursday, depending on which side shows up. The AFCON Morocco will have a possession-based controlling game, while the World Cup Morocco will be happy to give their opponents the ball. Either way, the danger they pose from set pieces and a solid defence is what Regragui can count on.