By The Numbers: EURO 2024 Group Stages Team Stats

EURO 2024 has been a treat so far, and as we take a two-day breather, it is time to reflect on the Group Stages. The bad news is that the tournament is 71% complete. Bummer. 16 teams may have qualified for the next round, but not all have performed the same. Spain were the only team to collect maximum points, winning all three of their group games. Based on that, they are many people’s favourites to win the whole thing. But how do they, and other teams, rank in other metrics? In this By The Numbers, we look at the data behind some of the best players from the Group stages.

Attacking

Germany were the highest scorers in the groups, finding the net eight times, thanks largely to a five-goal blitz in their opening game. They needed a last-minute equalizer on Matchday 3 to keep up their scoring rate, but there is little doubt the German attack has clicked. No team has more shots hitting the target than them (20, level with Czechia) and their overall conversion rate (20%), is bettered only by Austria (27%) & Switzerland (21%). The Germans come up lower in Expected Goals (joint 5th with Turkiye), but that is offset by their effectiveness in front of goal, with their 2.9xG overperformance the best thus far.

Croatia are out of the tournament, and the table suggests their wastefulness in front of goals could be the cause (which includes a missed penalty). The other side of this table is interesting, as pre-tournament favourites England are one of the worst sides when it comes to creating quality opportunities, ranking 22nd out of 24 in the tournament. It is surprising, what with the talent at Gareth Southgate’s disposal.

Defending

Coming into EURO2024, England were considered favourite by many bookies. The Three Lions have had uninspiring and disjointed attacking performances, but they remain favourites to win the tournament. This is largely due to their effective defensive performances. While they have struggled on the ball and when replacing missing players, they have been solid off the ball, and the defensive numbers back that up.

Southgate’s team has conceded just 1.15xG worth of chances, with their opposition efforts worth 0.04xG per shot, both figures suggesting England is the hardest defence to breach. They have faced some decent strikers too (Mitrovic, Hojlund, Seko). Spain have not conceded a goal, but according to xG, they should have conceded three goals. Alongside the Spanish, England are the only other side that have not conceded a goal inside the box. Defences win tournaments – we’ve heard that many times before.

Favourites Predictions

After finishing second in their group and drawing Belgium in the next round, France’s chances of winning the tournament have dipped by from 19% (2nd favourites) to 13% (4th favourites). England’s chances have also gone down (19.9% to 19.1%), but they are still given the best chance of winning the tournament according to the Opta supercomputer – their path to Berlin looks more straightforward on paper. Meanwhile, Germany (16.1%) have gone up in the simulation’s expectation, while Spain are the biggest movers in terms of probability, up to 15% at the time of writing.