AS Roma v Lazio – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Roma host Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico. The hosts are underperforming their Expected Goals more than any side in Italy but have moved into the top four in recent weeks. Biancocelesti sit just one point behind the Giallorossi and will want to avoid the 3-0 scoreline in this fixture last season as two former Chelsea managers face off in Mourinho and Sarri.

Roma Form

Giallorossi have had a strange season so far. They began the league well with three wins to nil and a 1-1 draw at Juventus. Three defeats followed in the next three matches including a heavy 4-0 thrashing at Udinese and a 1-0 home loss to Atlanta. Roma had 21 shots, five big chances, and 2.42 xG but still somehow lost that fixture. A run of four wins in five in Serie A has seen them jump into the top four.

They won 2-1 at Inter Milan and 1-0 at Sampdoria before losing 1-0 at home to high-flying Napoli. Roma were poor that day with just 0.32 Expected Goals created. Their last league match saw a 3-1 win at Verona and they repeated that scoreline against Ludogorets on Thursday night in the Europa League.

Roma Team News

Jose Mourinho is without long-term injury victim Gini Wijnaldum in midfield. Forward Paulo Dybala has a hamstring problem and has missed ten matches already after a bright start. Left wingback Leonardo Spinazzola has missed the last two matches with a hamstring complaint and remains a doubt.

Nicolo Zaniolo was only used as a sub on Thursday and should replace Andrea Belotti up front alongside the underperforming Tammy Abraham. Bryan Cristante is also set to return with Nemanja Matic dropping to the bench.

Roma Motivation

The Giallorossi will be hugely motivated to beat their city rivals as they did at home last season, 3-0. Mourinho will have his side up for the game and will go all out for victory even if it won’t be an open and attacking strategy.

If in front, expect Roma to spoil and cede possession to “Sarri-ball” and try to hit Lazio on the break.

Lazio Form

Sarri’s side have overperformed their Expected Goals numbers this season by more than any side, both in scoring and conceding terms. They looked great for large parts of September and October, going on a run of eight matches unbeaten in all competitions. That streak included five wins and six clean sheets.

After winning 4-0 in three consecutive Serie A matches (vs Cremonese, Spezia, and Fiorentina away), they looked like possible title contenders. Lazio then drew 0-0 at home with Udinese before winning 2-0 at Atlanta and 2-1 against Midtjylland in the Europa League. Successive defeats have followed, 3-1 at home to Salernitana and 1-0 to Feyenoord. The latter defeat saw them end third in the Europa League group and drop into the UEFA Conference League Play-offs.

Lazio Team News

The big call for Sarri is whether he risks star striker Ciro Immobile, who has been suffering from a hamstring injury. The 32-year-old was absent on Thursday and is at about a 30% chance of playing in the derby. Mattia Zaccagni could play centrally with Pedro in support.

Defensive midfielder Marco Bertini remains unavailable. Key midfielder Sergej Milinković-Savić was used from the bench against Salernitana and Lazio paid a heavy price for resting him. He will return to the XI for this key match.

Lazio Motivation

Sarri’s side will play in this usual style for this match and try to win on the road. A draw would be a decent result having lost 3-0 in March and on four of their last five away derby fixtures.

If Immobile is absent, then Lazio tend to lose more matches as seen in the last two. That would make the first goal crucial to draw Roma out of their shape.

Key Stats

Roma have won 4 of their last 5 home derbies vs Lazio

Roma have won 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches

Roma have produced 28.01 xG this season, but scored just 16 goals

Lazio have lost their last 2 matches (all comps)

Lazio have lost 1 of their last 13 away matches in Serie A

Lazio have scored 21 goals in their last 8 away matches (Serie A)

Verdict

Both sides have Europa League commitments in midweek with varying degrees of success. Roma have been playing well this term and deserve to have more points based on their performances. Lazio have got some fortunate wins and may be missing key forward Immobile, so I am tipping a home derby win for Mourinho’s side.