AC Milan v Atletico Madrid – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

AC Milan face Atletico Madrid on Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League on matchday two. The Rossoneri lost 3-2 at Liverpool in their first match whilst Atletico performed poorly against Porto in a 0-0 draw and should have lost. These sides will know the importance of this match in the most competitive group in the competition.

Milan Form

Stefano Pioli’s team is unbeaten in Serie A this season with five wins and a draw. A fine 2-0 win against Lazio was followed by the 3-2 loss at Anfield against Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League. A 1-1 draw at Juventus came next having conceded early and then equalized through Ante Rebic after 76 minutes.

Milan then beat Venezia 2-0 with a rotated XI as Braham Diaz and substitute Theo Hernandez netted. Pioli again rotated his side at Spezia over the weekend. Having led through Daniel Maldini, they conceded an equalizer with ten minutes to play. Brahim Diaz came on to score the winner and save the day for a 2-1 victory.

Milan Team News

Right-back Davide Calabria and striker Olivier Giroud made their comebacks from injury against Spezia and should start this big match. The latter scored for Chelsea against Atletico last season. Simon Kjaer and Alessandro Florenzi missed the weekend and are doubts.

The former is most likely to start but captain Alessio Romagnoli has looked good next to Fikayo Tomori and could keep his place. Tiemoue Bakayoko and Rade Krunic remain injured in midfield and striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Simon Kjaer are not expected to return. The latter has been carrying an injury but has greater experience alongside captain Alessio Romagnoli.

Milan Motivation

Milan is a stronger team on the road than at home. However, they need a win from this match having lost their first game. A defeat would be a terrible result and make it very difficult for them to progress to the knockout stages.

A cagey performance is expected knowing what threat Atletico poses on counter-attacks and how hard they are to break down if you concede the first goal.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atleti made a good start to their La Liga season with four wins and two draws in their first six matches before a shock 1-0 defeat to Alaves over the weekend. Despite reasonable results, their performances have left a lot to be desired.

After a 99th minute winner by Thomas Lemar to take three points at Espanyol, Atletico could only draw 0-0 at home with Porto. The side was largely awful with 0.4 xG created to 1.8 xG for Porto. They since drew 0-0 at home with Athletic Bilbao and needed two Luis Suarez goals in the final 13 minutes to beat ten-man Getafe. The 1-0 loss to Alaves was very poor with just one shot on target and 0.56 xG produced.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Atletico has Joao Felix available again after he missed the weekend defeat due to suspension. He may have to settle for a spot on the bench with Antoine Griezmann partnering with Luis Suarez.

Jose Gimenez should be recalled to anchor the team’s back three. Angel Correa and Koke could also be brought into the starting XI in midfield.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

Atleti will play defensively in this match. A draw would be a decent result but they are well capable, even after some poor recent performances, of winning in Milan.

Diego Simeone will have either Felix or Griezmann on the bench to turn the match and could switch from the expected 3-5-2 to a 4-4-2 if chasing a goal.

Key Stats

Milan are winless in their last 2 home European matches (1-1 vs Red Star, 0-1 vs Man Utd)

Milan have won 5 of their 6 matches in Serie A this season (D1)

Atletico have lost 5 of their last 8 away CL matches

Atletico have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 away CL matches

Atletico have won both previous meetings with Milan in the CL (5-1 aggregate in 2014)

Verdict

This match is very difficult to call. Any of the three results are possible but it does feel far more likely to be low scoring. Atletico may not be playing well but they are well equipped to nullify Milan – who are far from unbeatable at home – and take a narrow, shock win.