URC Predictions – Quarter-finals

Following a thrilling league campaign, we’re down to the final eight. That three of the four South African sides have reached the playoffs is a testament to the strength of rugby in the country.

The Stormers kick off the quarter-final action when they cross swords with the defending champion Glasgow Warriors in Scotland on Friday night, with the three other fixtures taking place on Saturday.

The Bulls welcome Edinburgh to Loftus Versfeld, the Sharks square off against Munster at Kings Park while top seeds Leinster collide with the Scarlets in Dublin.

Glasgow Warriors v Stormers

Friday, 30 May – 20:35 SAST

The inaugural champions face the defending champions in Glasgow.

Given the amount of injuries the Stormers suffered this season, they’ve done a great job finishing the league phase in fifth place. Their reward, though, is a tough tie against a well-coached team desperate to retain their title.

The Capetonians enter the match on better form and will thus be backing themselves. John Dobson’s men are on a four-match winning streak and conquered Cardiff 34-24 last time out, whereas the Warriors have lost three in a row.

A 52-0 humiliation at the hands of Leinster in the Investec Champions Cup brought about Franco Smith’s troops’ decline but they did look more like themselves in their much more respectable 13-5 loss to self-same Leinster two weeks ago. 

Losing Damian Willemse to suspension is a massive blow for the Stormers, but they still have the playmakers and dynamism to beat any team on any given day. That said, the Warriors are their bogey team.

The men from Glasgow have won all four meetings between the sides since losing their first encounter, including a 27-10 triumph in last year’s quarters and a 28-17 win in Cape Town earlier this season, and should continue that streak at home.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 7.

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -6 at 1.90.

Bulls v Edinburgh

When: Saturday, 31 May – 13:30 SAST

Timing is everything and the men from Pretoria are seemingly peaking at the perfect time. The form team of the competition, the Bulls have won their last six games on the bounce to qualify for the playoffs in second place.

Edinburgh, meanwhile, beat Connacht (31-21) and Ulster (47-17) in their last two league games to lock down their place in the last eight. Aside from moving one step closer to a second successive final, the Bulls are also eying revenge after Edinburgh eliminated them from the EPCR Challenge Cup with a 34-28 quarter-final win last month.

The teams are 2-2 in the URC, with the home side prevailing in each of the four encounters. Their last meeting at Loftus, back in Round Two, was close, with the Bulls pipping it 22-16. Whereas Jake White’s men were only beginning to get into their work back then, they’re now firing on all cylinders and should march into the semis with an emphatic win.

Prediction: Bulls by 15.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh +17 at 1.90.

Leinster v Scarlets

Saturday, 31 May – 16:00 SAST

Title favourites Leinster, with their massive budget and unrivalled depth, have to secure the silverware to selvedge the season after they yet again shockingly crashed out of the Investec Champions Cup.

The 37-34 semi-final loss to the Northampton Saints in March once again suggested that the Irish giants lack mental fortitude and as URC pacesetters all season, they’re expected to end their trophy drought.

The Scarlets snuck into the last eight, pipping local rivals Cardiff to the last playoff place by a single point, and were one of just two teams to beat Leinster during the league phase. That 35-22 home triumph last month was against a third-rate Leinster outfit, though.

The ‘real’ Leinster will run away with it. 

Prediction: Leinster by 25.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -23 at 1.90.

Sharks v Munster

When: Saturday, 31 May – 18:30 SAST

The Sharks, who finished the league phase in third place thanks to a four-game winning streak, have the toughest assignment of the top four teams as they take on the 2022-23 champions.

The Durbanites have been winning ugly as of late, with coach John Plumtree admitting “no rugby was played here tonight” following his team’s 12-3 victory over the Scarlets last time out.

The Springbok-laden side just haven’t been able to click as they did earlier in the season when they handed Munster a 41-24 hiding in Round Six. While the results have been there, they’ve regressed in the cohesion department and need to flip the switch if they’re to keep their title hopes alive.

Munster have had an up-and-down season, finishing the league phase in sixth place with a 9-9 record, but they did reach the Investec Champions Cup quarter-finals and have won their last two URC games against Ulster (38-20) and Benetton (30-21).

Nothing separates the sides when it comes to head-to-head record. They’ve each won twice and drawn once in their five matches in all competitions. Munster are yet to triumph in Durban, though, with the closest they came to doing so being the 22-all stalemate in 2023.

Unfortunately, given the evening time slot, this probably won’t be the most aesthetically pleasing game, with the Durban dew set to complicate matters. Munster won the title with a run of away playoff victories two years ago, so they’ll back themselves. However, with so much class in the Sharks side, they should pull through.

Prediction: Sharks by 5.

Suggested Bet: Munster +6 at 1.90.