United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 5

Don’t sleep on the South African-less fifth round of the as it’s as intriguing on the betting front as it promises to be compelling on the pitch, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The Bulls, Lions, Sharks, and Stormers are back on South Africa soil enjoying a much-needed break following their taxing maiden tours of Europe, leaving the Northerners to fight it out among themselves this weekend before the tournament breaks for the end-of-year rugby Tests.

The key point of intrigue is whether the Irish powerhouses will be able to keep their unbeaten records intact. The three flawless frontrunners all have stiff challenges to overcome away from home, starting with tournament favorites Leinster, who battle the Glasgow Warriors on Friday night. On Saturday, table-topping Ulster clash with Connacht, and Munster lock horns with the Ospreys.

The other half of the menu features teams jockeying for position. Scarlets host Benetton on Friday night, while Saturday sees Zebre entertain Edinburgh and Cardiff and the Dragons go to war in a Welsh derby.

Scarlets v Benetton

Friday, 22 October – 20:35

Two scrappy sides kick off the round in what should be a tightly contested affair. Coming off back-to-back hammerings at the hands of Munster and Leinster, this homecoming is a crucial early juncture for the Scarlets where a second win will correct the course of their campaign, while a fourth defeat would sound the alarm.

Benetton oh so nearly completed a stunning comeback against the Ospreys last weekend, rallying from 26-7 down to make it 26-all at the death. After one mistake and a controversial call led to a heart-breaking 29-26 loss, they’ll look to make their luck in Swansea.

The Welsh outfit has long had their number, having won eight of the last 10 meetings, and given the added importance of this game for the hosts, they should rise to the occasion.

Glasgow Warriors v Leinster

Friday, 22 October – 20:35

The Warriors, at home, will be a stern test for Leinster. The men from Glasgow are the best of the rest, sitting fourth on the log behind the three Irish giants, and pushed table-topping Ulster close in the opening round, succumbing 35-29 on the road.

They’ve rattled off three wins since without getting out of second gear, beating the Sharks 35-24, the Lions 13-9, and Zebre 17-9. While not the most convincing victories, they got the job done. They’ll know, though, that they’ll have to be at their best to hand their second-placed visitors their first loss.

Leinster keeps improving every week and has enough class across the board to pull clear in the latter stages. They’ve won the last five fixtures between the sides, including the last two at Scotstoun by 13, and under clear skies, I’m backing them to overcome the handicap.

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Zebre v Edinburgh

Saturday, 23 October – 14:00

After the performance they produced to beat the Bulls, complacency is the only potential banana peel the Scots could slip on in Parma. Bottom-of-the-log Zebre did show a bit more zest and exceeded expectations against the Warriors to cover the spread (-10.5) but the result was nevertheless a fourth straight loss (17-9). I can’t see them doing the same against the physical Scots.

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Connacht v Ulster

Saturday, 23 October – 18:15

Based on their contrasting campaigns, South African supporters new to these teams will likely write off Connacht, who’s managed just a solitary win – over the Bulls in Round Two – while imperious Ulster has collected a maximum of 20 log points. Don’t be too quick to dismiss the baby brother of the Irish teams, though.

Connacht has little choice but to lift their game when they come up against the log leaders. The thing is, they usually do. The last 10 clashes in this derby are split straight down the middle at five wins apiece. It was the same story last year when Connacht claimed first blood (26-20) before Ulster turned the tables (32-19).

Add in the rain that’s forecast and it should be closer than you probably would’ve originally thought. With all their ducks in a row, Ulster is good for the win though.

Cardiff v Dragons

Saturday, 23 October – 18:15

A Welsh derby that has fire, excitement, and usually the same outcome. At least in recent times. Cardiff is dragon-slayers of note; they’ve mastered the art of playing with fire without getting burnt as they’ve swept the last 10 showdowns. As I mentioned, though, clashes between these two are usually cliff-hangers with Cardiff hanging on by the skin of their teeth in the last five (22-17, 23-15, 19-16, 16-12, and most recently, 13-12).

They again look to the better side, bouncing back from the loss to the Bulls with a 23-17 win over the Sharks while the Dragons’ 24-10 loss to the Stormers left their record at 1-3.

Ospreys v Munster

Saturday, 23 October – 20:35

It looked as though the Ospreys managed to hastily cover up the cracks that led to a surprise loss to the Sharks as they raced into a commanding lead against Benetton last weekend. Rush jobs are often half jobs, though, and those cracks soon reappeared. In the end, they needed a bit of good fortune to hold on for a 29-26 win.

Bar the defeat to the Durbanites, all their matches have been close, which indicates two things – that they’re competitors at heart and play to the level of their opposition, and after Connacht came so close to shocking Munster last weekend, the Ospreys will feel they have an opening to claim a major scalp. 

What Munster’s great escape against Connacht showed was that they’re beatable and, at the same time, that they’re capable of finding a way to win when things aren’t going to plan as championship teams do. They’ll be determined to set the record straight and have owned the Ospreys for years, so I’m expecting improved performance and another win for Munster in the wet.