29 January 2020, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

Six Nations Predictions – Round 1

The dawn of a new era in Northern Hemisphere rugby adds fresh appeal to the regal pedigree of the Six Nations, which gets underway this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Each nation has its own lingering World Cup hangover to deal with after a global showpiece that hinted that the balance of power had possibly shifted, with five Northern Hemisphere teams featuring in the quarter-finals, spiralled into a disaster for Europe’s elite.

Wales and Ireland both reached the summit of the world rankings for the first time in history last year, but it was England who marched into the World Cup final, where they were felled by a rampant Springbok side. Who will start the new decade and four-year cycle by establishing themselves as the one true king of the north?

Four new coaches enter the fray along with a flood of fresh faces into the collective talent pool. Newcomers bring extra excitement, exuberance and a measure of intriguing unpredictability to the Test arena, making this year’s Six Nations a must-watch affair.

Both nations have new coaches, Wales naming Wayne Pivac as fellow New Zealander Warren Gatland’s successor, and Italy roping in South African Franco Smith to take over from Irishman Conor O’Shea. Defending champions Wales claimed a famous Grand Slam and narrowly lost out on a maiden World Cup final last year, going down 19-16 to South Africa in a tense semi-final.

With a good mix of youth and experience, the Dragons have the squad to put up a serious fight to retain the title. Talismanic captain Alun Wyn Jones, with his Wales’ record 133 caps, remains at the helm and will look to replicate his fantastic 2019 form that earned him the Six Nations Player of the Year award, while fellow stalwart Dan Biggar will pull the strings at flyhalf.

It’s the draw that makes a successful title defence unlikely, as they face both Ireland and England away. It’ll be interesting to see how they go about their business under Pivac, but a first assignment doesn’t get any better than the Azzurri at home. Italy’s last tournament win was back in 2015 when they stunned Scotland in Edinburgh, and they’re without inspirational captain Sergio Parisse, whose swansong is being saved for one of the home games, so expect a one-sided opener.

Prediction: Wales by 21.

Total points scored: 45.

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Both teams will be looking to put their disastrous World Cup campaigns behind them. Both suffered historic defeats to hosts Japan, with Scotland failing to reach the play-offs and Ireland suffering a crushing 46-14 quarter-final loss to the All Blacks, which marked the end of the Joe Schmidt era.

Andy Farrell is the new Irish mentor and he’s handed the captain’s armband to Johnny Sexton. The star flyhalf failed to fire at the World Cup and the honour of leading his country could be the spark he needs to return to his world-beating best. Sexton and long-time halfback partner Conor Murray will once again steer the ship for an Ireland team that have largely stayed intact and should be strong title challengers.

Scotland’s woes have already begun, with their best player – flyhalf Finn Russell – being kicked out of the squad for “a breach of team protocol” last week. With that major setback, Gregor Townsend’s hopes of starting the season on a better note than last year ended have seemingly gone up in smoke. Without their central figure and playing in Dublin, where they haven’t beaten Ireland since 2010, the Scots will be swept aside by the hosts.

Prediction: Ireland by 12.

Total points scored: 40.

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As always, Eddie Jones has done a fantastic job of rallying his charges in the media over the last couple of weeks. The England coach believes his players have had enough time to decompress from their World Cup final heartbreak and says the Saracens relegation saga will only galvanise his troops.

England are the favourites to claim the title and there’s a real possibility of them sealing a Grand Slam. Not only are they the least disrupted team, both in terms of management and player personnel, but they also have the best draw, which will see them face their two biggest threats – Wales and Ireland – at home.

France have a new coach in Fabien Galthie, a new captain in inexperienced loose forward Charles Ollivon and 19 uncapped players in their squad. One never knows what to expect from the erratic French, but they won’t be the pushovers in Paris that they were in London last season when English crushed them 44-8.

Les Bleus won the last Le Crunch at the Stade de France 22-16 in 2018, but bank on a strong and stable England outfit to keep them at bay this time around.

Prediction: England by nine.

Total points scored: 37.

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