17 July 2019, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS – ROUND 1

One of the more intriguing installments of the Rugby Championship in recent history will burst into action this weekend.

The All Blacks have dominated the quadrangular competition, winning six of the seven editions of the southern hemisphere showpiece, with the Wallabies being the only other side to get their hands on the silverware after an unbeaten campaign in 2015.

New Zealand are firm favourites to continue their dominance, and rightfully so, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that they’ll keep their stranglehold on the trophy, largely because of this year’s truncated tournament. The single-round shootout, necessitated by the World Cup taking place in September, makes for a coaching conundrum.

The Springboks and All Blacks are opting for a two-team approach; will this help or hinder their respective causes in the competition? How much importance has Steve Hansen put on retaining the title? Will the All Black mentor risk losing the Rugby Championship battle if it means improving the chances of winning the World Cup war?

All four teams will want to fine-tune their game, but at the same time, keep a few tricks up their sleeve for the World Cup.
These factors fuel the intrigue and inject a level of unpredictability into a competition that’s become more and more predictable over the years.

Here’s how we see the first round playing out.

Will the Springboks’ two-team approach cost them on Saturday? The Ellis Park factor usually gives the Boks a ‘head-start’ of about seven points. However, the decision to field a weakened side, whilst seemingly strategically shrewd, negates that advantage and gives a full-strength Wallabies outfit a golden opportunity to secure a rare win on South African soil.

The visitors will be brimming with belief and will have a distinct edge in continuity and cohesion. While it is the first Test of the season, Australia are a settled side with experienced combinations. The ‘B’ Boks still boast plenty of talented players, but this will be their first match as a team. It’s a big ask.

With there bound to be some issues between new combinations, individual players will have to stand up for South Africa. A star performance from one or two Boks would go a long way in them seeing off the Wallabies. There are also eight spots on the plane to New Zealand the next day up for grabs for those who impress the most, an added motivation, not that they should lack any.

The Wallabies will hope to start strong and target new combinations, especially the halfback pairing. Stop them from getting into a groove and the Boks will struggle tactically. Michael Cheika’s charges had a torrid 2018, winning just four of their 13 Tests, so they’ll view the Rugby Championship as a chance to reboot.

One of their 2018 wins came against the Boks (23-18), although that was in Australia. History is well and truly against them here; they’ve won just one of their 10 Tests at Ellis Park – a narrow 11-9 victory all the way back in 1963 – and last won in South Africa in 2011, when they edged the Boks 14-9. It’ll be close, but the ‘B’ Boks should be good enough to preserve their proud record against the Australians.

Prediction: South Africa by 3.

Like the Springboks, the All Blacks have sent a second-string side to Argentina. The key difference is the defending champions’ superior depth. They have an embarrassment of riches; most of the players have been in the squad for several seasons and know the set-up and game plan all too well. It’s therefore not as big of a change for them as it is for the Boks.

Argentina will want to build on the Jaguares’ stellar Super Rugby campaign. Most of the national team took the Jaguares to their first South African Conference title and maiden final, so like Australia, they’ll be the better well-oiled machine. How much progress will they make from the Super Rugby stage to the Test arena? That’s the big question when it comes to Los Pumas.

Always particularly tough to topple at home, Argentina will make a good fist of it, but you’ll have to be a brave man to bet against the All Blacks, even if they are not at full-strength.

Prediction: All Blacks by 15.

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