European Champions Cup Predictions – Semi-Finals

Continental colossuses and French heavyweights collide in the this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The first semi-final is the ultimate blockbuster between Europe’s most decorated clubs as Leinster tackle Toulouse at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Saturday afternoon. 

Sunday’s second semi-final promises plenty of flair and fireworks with Racing 92 and last year’s finalists La Rochelle set to light up the Stade Bollaert-Delelis in an all-French affair in Lens.

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Leinster v Toulouse

Saturday, 14 May – 16:00

They don’t come any bigger than this. It’s a seismic showdown between the most successful clubs in Europe, with Toulouse boasting a record five titles and Leinster breathing down their neck with four.  

The continent’s premier powerhouses have had contrasting 2021-22 campaigns. Leinster’s been an unstoppable force while the defending champions have snuck through every stage. As a result, the Irish giants will enjoy home ground advantage. 

Leo Cullen’s charges made the biggest statement of last weekend’s quarter-finals and solidified themselves as title favourites with a dominant display of total rugby in the English midlands.

To go to Welford Road and blank the Gallagher Premiership-leading Leicester Tigers in the first half (20-0) was a show of force that should strike fear into any team they come across, including tenacious Toulouse.

They closed it out well, too, despite just adding three points after the break, the 23-14 scoreline flattering the hosts. The big takeaway from the second half for Toulouse would’ve been the success the Tigers had with their driving maul, a weapon that set up both of their tries. 

Toulouse have class in abundance but are yet to fire on all cylinders. They’ve had to rely on their champion resolve to reach this point and it came to the fore yet again at the Aviva Stadium last weekend, as did their big match temperament to pip Munster 4-2 on penalties after playing to a thrilling 24-all stalemate. 

What was pivotal on the night and set to be a key factor come Saturday is Toulouse’s powerful scrum, which created one of their tries and won them the penalty that saw them draw level at the death. 

United Rugby Championship leaders Leinster are rock solid, but you can bet the French will throw everything at them in the all-important set-piece in the pursuit of front foot ball for star halfback pairing Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack to wield their magic. 

Toulouse won’t go down without a fight, but the power, pedigree and poise of Leinster will see them punch their ticket to the final and end the French die-hards’ reign. 

Racing 92 v La Rochelle

Sunday, 15 May – 16:00

Fireworks are guaranteed in the all-French second semi-final after both sides came through the quarters with style points, La Rochelle beating Montpellier 31-19 and Racing 92 smashing the Sale Sharks 41-22.

It’s a tough one to call. They’re very similar but before taking a tactical look at the teams, it’s worth stressing the game will be contested at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens and not Racing’s backyard in Paris because of a rap concert at La Defense Arena. Consider, also, La Rochelle’s had an extra day to recover. 

Looking at last year’s finalists, their offloading game is as good as it gets. They’re fluid and will break any dam wall if allowed to run freely. They have familiar faces out wide in Springboks Dillyn Leyds and Raymond Rhule, a capable Kiwi at No.10 in Ihaia West and a former Junior Springbok captain in their back-row in Wiaan Liebenberg. 

Racing are like a wildfire. With La Rochelle, defences can train ball-and-all tackles in the week as a means to hopefully rob them of momentum on match day. There is no way to prepare for the mercurial skills and vision of the Finn Russell-led Racing backline.

This was highlighted last Sunday, not once but twice, with Teddy Thomas and that man Russell scoring ridiculous tries, while Juan Imhoff and Max Springs’ terrific touchdowns were delectable displays of their counter-attacking prowess. Look for them to also test La Rochelle under the high ball after they coughed up a try, and around the fringes.  

Racing looked vulnerable in tight at times last weekend, most notably when Akker van der Merwe burrowed over, and it would serve La Rochelle best to go to work with their pack. That said, Racing have an all-Les Bleus front row and Trevor Nyakane as added firepower, so any advantage La Rochelle might have in close quarters would be slight. 

With that in mind, what’s expected to be a cliffhanger could come down to a moment of magic or clutch kick at goal, and Russell’s the man for both, so I’m backing the Parisians to pip it.