South Africa vs Sri Lanka Second Test: Best Bets & Prediction

The second and final Test of the South Africa-Sri Lanka series gets underway on Thursday at St George’s Park, Gqeberha. South Africa lead the series 1-0 after a commanding 233-run victory in Durban, boosting their chances of securing a spot in their maiden World Test Championship final.

We look at the best bets and a prediction for this encounter.

Venue: St George’s Park.

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South Africa’s bowlers dominated in Durban, with Marco Jansen delivering a standout performance, claiming 11-86 and earning Player of the Match honours. Skipper Temba Bavuma led with the bat, scoring 71 and an unbeaten 113, while Tristan Stubbs recorded his second Test century.

However, injuries to all-rounder Wiaan Mulder and pacer Gerald Coetzee may force changes to the Proteas lineup. Bowling coach Piet Botha hinted at Dane Paterson as a strong option for St George’s Park, while Kwena Maphaka or spin all-rounder Senuran Muthusamy could also come into contention.

Sri Lanka struggled after a strong start, collapsing to their lowest-ever Test score of 42 in Durban before posting 282 in their second innings. Despite the 233-run defeat, batting coach Thilina Kandamby remains optimistic, referencing their comeback win against England earlier this year after a heavy loss.

Sri Lanka, one of only two teams to beat South Africa in Gqeberha, must win this Test and sweep Australia at home to keep their WTC final hopes alive. South Africa, meanwhile, need victories in this Test and their upcoming series against Pakistan to stay in contention. The Proteas have a solid record at St George’s Park, winning 14 of 27 matches, including four of their last six.

South Africa remains one of the toughest places for touring teams, particularly Asian sides, to succeed in Test cricket. While Sri Lanka is the only Asian team to have won a Test series on South African soil, the visitors face a daunting challenge. The Proteas are in top form, coming off a historic victory in Durban, their first-ever Test win against Sri Lanka at the venue.

With momentum on their side, South Africa is expected to seal the series 2-0, strengthening their position in the 2023-25 World Test Championship standings. Back South Africa to win at 1.43.

Key Battle: Sri Lankan opener Dimith Karunaratne has struggled in Tests this year, with his average of 60.80 nearly halving to 32.06 in 2024. He has had serious trouble against South African paceman Kagiso Rabada, who now has 6-146 from 44.1 overs bowled to him after dismissing him for single digits in both innings of the first Test.

Key Stats

The average first innings score at this venue is 312.

Marco Jansen has gone wicketless in only one of his 14 Test bowling innings at home.

Keshav Maharaj has 29 wickets in only nine Tests against Sri lanka, but has gone wicketless against them in three of his last four bowling innings.

Kagiso Rabada has figures of 2-38 from 114 balls bowled to Dinesh Chandimal.

Temba Bavuma has passed 70 in three of his last four Test innings against Sri Lanka.

Best Bets