South Africa vs Pakistan First ODI: Best Bets & Prediction

Match: South Africa vs Pakistan 1st ODI
When: Tuesday, 17 December 2024, 14:00am SAST
Where: Boland Park

The two sides will face off in a three-match series, starting on Tuesday at Boland Park in Paarl. We’ve prepared the best bets and a prediction for the first ODI.

Betting Preview

South Africa’s big guns are gradually returning as they gear up for a crucial ODI series with an eye on the World Test Championship final. Captain Temba Bavuma will be rested for the first match, while there are nine changes from the squad that faced Afghanistan and Ireland in the UAE. Kagiso Rabada, Heinrich Klaasen, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, and Tabraiz Shamsi are all back, having last played ODIs in the World Cup or against India in December. Young quick Kwena Maphaka, who impressed in the T20Is, earns his first ODI call-up, and Ryan Rickelton is set to open with Reeza Hendricks omitted. South Africa’s bowling attack will miss Anrich Nortje, Lungi Ngidi, Gerald Coetzee, Wiaan Mulder, and Nandre Burger due to injuries.

Pakistan have made five changes to the squad that toured Zimbabwe. Abbas Afridi, Jahandad Khan, Faisal Akram, Aamer Jamal, and Haseebullah Khan make way for the returning Babar Azam, Naseem Shah, and Shaheen Shah Afridi, providing a major boost. Left-arm wrist-spinner Sufiyan Muqeem, who impressed in the T20Is, gets his maiden ODI call-up, while uncapped batter Usman Khan, boasting an average of 75.66 in 12 List A games, also joins the squad.

For South Africa, this series is crucial as they adjust to the 50-over format after a year dominated by Test matches and T20 leagues. They’ll aim to rediscover their rhythm at Paarl, where they had won five consecutive ODIs before losing to India last December. The venue has been a happy hunting ground for Rassie van der Dussen and Heinrich Klaasen, both of whom have ODI centuries there. Pakistan, fresh from their success in Australia, will look to carry that momentum forward and keep building confidence.

After the Proteas’ impressive performances in the ODIs, they’ll be coming into this series brimming with confidence. Back the to win this game and take a 1-0 series lead.

Players to Watch

Rassie van der Dussen has a favourite opposition in this format, it surely must be Pakistan. They’re certainly the ones that have provided him with some of his favourite memories: courtesy of a century and four fifties – five 50+ scores from his eight ODI innings against them, he boasts a whopping average of 96.20, in addition to his aforementioned century at Boland Park. With a jaw-dropping ODI average of 141 and strike rate of 91 against the estemmed Pakistan pace quartet of Shaheen/Naseem/Rauf/Hasnain, the good times look set to continue.

Mohammed Rizwan is the captain and is always facing more criticism for his slow strike rate. In ODIs, this might not matter as much. It’s the best chance for him to get some runs. It’s not long ago when he scored a big 131* against Sri Lanka in the World Cup. Since then, scores have been in short supply though he has finished not out in two of four innings this year. He had a torrid time in South Africa previously, scoring 56 runs in five innings. His overall average vs them is just 17.40 too. It’s a record he’d want to correct.

Key Stats

The average ODI run rate in Paarl across its six games since 2017 is 5.53rpo (5.79rpo) for South Africa.

Kagiso Rabada averages 58.57 with the ball against Pakistan in ODIs: he’s taken seven wickets in 80.1 overs.

This is the first calendar year since his debut year in 2015 that Babar Azam hasn’t hit an international hundred. The highest he has managed across formats is 75.

Shaheen Shah Afridi has dismissed Rassie van der Dussen just twice from 23 overs bowled in all internationals at an average of nearly 60.

Marco Jansen has bowled 15 balls to Abdullah Shafique in ODIs for figures of 1-1.

Tabraiz Shamsi has bowled 19 overs to Babar Azam in all professional cricket for figures of 1-150.

Best Bets

Prediction: South Africa to win at 1.55.
Best Bet: Mohammed Rizwan to score over 25.5 runs at 1.83.
Value Bet: Rassie van der Dussen to be South Africa’s top batter at 4.35.