New Zealand vs England 3rd Test: Full Match Preview and Expert Predictions

Match: New Zealand vs England 3rd Test
When: Saturday, 14 December 2024, 12:00am SAST
Where: Seddon Park

Despite a stunning series win over India, the Kiwis have struggled to challenge England at home.

Dominant in all areas, England holds a commanding 2-0 lead and recent form suggests they are favourites to finish the series on a high. Let’s look at the best bets to take for this game.

Betting Preview

New Zealand’s second poor performance in this series, following their historic 3-0 clean sweep over India, will be hard for the Black Caps and their supporters to digest. After an eight-wicket loss in Christchurch, they suffered a crushing 323-run defeat in Wellington.

Winning the toss, Tom Latham sent England into bat and saw early success with the visitors at 43/4. However, a resilient fifth-wicket stand between Ollie Pope and Harry Brook powered England to 280. Nathan Smith (4-86) and Will O’Rourke (3-49) were the standout bowlers, but the attack faltered under pressure.

New Zealand’s batting crumbled in response, managing just 125 in their first innings. Kane Williamson top-scored with 37, while England’s bowlers dominated. In their second innings, England declared at 427/6, setting New Zealand an improbable 593 to win. The home side folded for 259, with Tom Blundell’s gritty 115 being the only bright spot.

Devon Conway’s absence for the birth of his child has opened the door for Will Young, who excelled against India last month, or Tom Blundell to fill an unfamiliar opening role. Mark Chapman also joins the squad with an outside chance of selection.

England, fresh off a series defeat in Pakistan, have been dominant in all departments. However, opener Zak Crawley’s struggles continue, with just 26 runs in four innings, all dismissals coming against Matt Henry. Spinner Shoaib Bashir’s ineffectiveness (2/175) also raises concerns.

The visitors’ strengths lie with Harry Brook, the world’s top-ranked Test batter, scoring 349 runs at an average of 116.33, and their pace attack. Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse have taken 24 wickets between them, with Carse leading the series tally at 16. England will look to seal the series in style.

Facing back-to-back Test defeats, New Zealand must deliver a dramatic turnaround to avoid a series whitewash. However, their struggles in all departments make a quick recovery unlikely. England, brimming with confidence after dominating the hosts, look poised to seal another win in the final Test.

Key Battle: England seamer and prospective all-rounder Brydon Carse continues to impress match by match. His 16 series wickets to date take him to 25 overall at an average of just 16.96. He will be looking to have a bowl at New Zealand middle order batter Daryl Mitchell who is just 15 runs shy of the 2,000 milestone in Test matches. Carse has dismissed Mitchell twice in Tests at a cost of just nine runs.

Key Stats

Although recently beating India away 3-0, New Zealand have now lost three of their last four series.

Matt Henry has dismissed Zak Crawley four times in this series and five times overall in Test cricket for just 19 runs off 49 balls delivered.

Joe Root, who aggregated 109 runs in the last match is 114 runs away from breaching the 13,000 runs in Test cricket. That would make him just one of five batters ever to achieve that feat in Test history.

The average first innings score at Seddon Park is 310. Rachin Ravindra just five runs away from scoring 1,000 Test runs.

Best Bets

Prediction: England to win at 1.86.
Best Bet: Highest individual score to be over 137.5 at 1.86.
Value Bet: Harry Brook to be England’s top 1st innings batter at 3.75.