10 Betting Trends From the Recently Ended DSTV Season

The 2020/21 season came to an end this past weekend with six of the eight matches ending in a draw. If you had placed money on every Swallows FC match this season and selected the DRAW option, you would have had a winning bet on 20 out of 30 occasions (67% of the time). If you’d placed money on every top-flight match this season, and selected the DRAW option, you would have had a winning bet in 40% of the matches. While many season reviews have already been written, we’ve done one that has a slight focus on the betting numbers. What 10 things did we learn from a betting perspective in the 25th PSL campaign?

The Lab – Stats Centre

Draws

Ultimately, there were 94 drawn matches this season, the most ever seen in a 30-game PSL campaign. In overall PSL history, it’s only the 2000/01 season that had more (99), and even that was an 18-team league.

39% – 39% of league matches ended in a draw this season, the highest proportion in PSL history.

Home Wins

Now that we have started and completed a full season without fans, their absence may be taken for granted. A club with a huge following like Chiefs may be said to have struggled at home without fans, but one would argue that Sundowns, and even Pirates, have performed at home. However, the recent season also saw the home win result reach its record lowest:

34% – 34% of matches ended in a home win this season (82/240), the lowest ratio in PSL history.

Overs

Just like last season, we had to wait until the final day to see the 500th goal. Lovers of goals (all fans should be) would have been mightily disappointed if we didn’t breach the 500-mark (only two PSL seasons have seen less than 500). Although 163 matches saw Over 1.5 goals this season (the second-best return this past decade – 164 in 2011/12), the Total Goals shrink the higher you go. 

• Over 2.5 – 81 matches (joint-lowest in PSL history)
• Over 3.5 – 33 matches (a new record low in PSL history)
• Over 4.5 – 11 matches (a new record low in PSL history)

507 – There were 507 goals scored in the league this season – the third lowest tally in PSL history.

Unders

The Unders market is a safe go-to for a low scoring league like the PSL, and this season would have been no different. For instance, 159 matches saw less than 2.5 goals – only one prior season has more. This means 2 in every 3 matches ended with less than 2.5 goals. It’s also only the fourth time in the last 19 seasons (when the league season was reduced to 240 games) that more than 200of those matches saw Under 3.5 goals.

207 – This season saw the highest number of matches in a 30-game PSL season with Under 3.5 goals (207).

Clean Sheets

Dennis Onyango walked away with the Golden Boot, even though he didn’t play four of the last 5 games. Not to worry, Sundowns (via Kennedy Mweene & Reyaad Pieterse) kept clean sheets in those four games, ensuring Downs became the second-highest clean sheet collectors in a season. 

It’s keepers from unlikely teams – Veli Mothwa (AmaZulu), Sfiso Mlungwana (Arrows) and Washington Arubi (TTM) that joined him with 10+ clean sheets. With the likes of Williams, Ofori, Sandilands and Akpeyi keeping 10+ clean sheets last season, punters may have been tempted to lean their way for clean sheets. But three other keepers stood out, setting or equalling their club’s records:

3 – Mlungwana became the first keeper in Arrows’ PSL history to record 11 clean sheets in a top-flight season. Mothwa became only the second Amazulu keeper to keep 11 clean sheets in a PSL season. Onyango became only the second keeper to keep 15 clean sheets for Sundowns in a PSL season.

Goal Timing

When it comes to goal-timing, one thing never changes – the last quarter-hour of games always delivers the most goals. The 2020/21 season did not see any aberration here.

120 – 120 goals were scored in the final 15 minutes of matches (the most of any 15-minute period in the games).

Most Common Scoreline

In line with the Under and Over markets, the most common scoreline this season was 1-1. This happened in 55 matches throughout the campaign, a record for a PSL season. The previous highest total for 1-1 draws was 43 in 2005/6. This season, that record was shattered with 66 matches still to play, led by one particular team.

15 – Swallows drew 1-1 in 15 matches this season (a new PSL record) and five more than the previous record.

Anytime Scorers

Bradley Grobler took home the Golden Boot notching 16 goals, the first Golden Boot for a Supersport player in the PSL. On the other hand, Peter Shalulile ended on 15, denied a 16th by the woodwork late in his final game. If there were two players to choose as anytime goalscorers, it would be them, although they both had patches where goals were hard to come by. However, their consistency is worth noting for next season, especially now that Grobler has extended his contract at Supersport.

2 – Grobler and Shalulile are the first players to score 10+ goals in successive seasons since Bernard Parker did this for Chiefs in 2012/13 and 2013/14.

Scoring in Both Halves

All teams managed to score in both halves of a game at least once this season and all teams also managed to do this at home at least once. It’s only on the road that two teams failed to score in both halves of a game at least once. These are also the two teams who dropped lower than any other team in terms of league position this season – both dropping six places from their finishes last term.

0 – Maritzburg and Chiefs are the only teams that failed to score in both halves away from home at least once.

Half-time Results

Sundowns were the best bet for leading at half-time this season, with the Brazilians leading at the break in 17 matches this season. They came one short of the PSL record for leading at half-time in a season which was 18 by Ajax Cape Town in 2010/11. On the reverse, Downs only trailed once at half-time this season, but they also missed the PSL record by one. The record was set by a side many would not guess:

1 – Baroka are the only side in PSL history to complete a full top-flight season without trailing at half-time, doing so in 2018/19.