16 October 2019, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

Rugby World Cup Predictions – Quarter-Finals

Asia’s first Rugby World Cup reaches the do-or-die district as the elite eight square off in the quarter-finals this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The top teams’ paths to the play-offs have all been different but their goal is one and the same, to capture the most coveted prize in the game. Japan has proven to be stellar hosts, with consistently large crowds of welcoming and respectful fans adding to the global showpiece.

After pulsating action in the pool stages, complete with a few classic upsets, the competition reaches crunch time. Will Australia ambush England? Can Ireland shock the world and dump the defending champion All Blacks out of the tournament? Can Les Bleus cause another classic World Cup upset, this time against Wales? Will Japan’s fairy-tale campaign continue when they take on the Springboks, or, will the favourites advance?

As the official betting partner of Superbru.com, here’s how we see the quarter-finals playing out.

The organised versus the disorganised. Eddie Jones has all his ducks in a row. He has shaped a settled side, steered by a dual playmaker system. England are class across the board – they have a strong pack, a well-balanced back-row and an experienced backline with a good mix of sizzle and steak. Each member of the squad knows exactly what his role is. As a result, they eased into the quarter-finals by topping the Pool of Death.

Michael Cheika, meanwhile, appears undecided about his strongest starting XV. Crucially, the Wallabies have lacked continuity with their halfback combination, the outspoken Cheika indicating earlier this week this was due to cancer survivor Christian Lealiifano being carefully managed.

While neither side have been at their best, England haven’t shown any glaring weaknesses. Australia, in contrast, have been hamstrung by slow starts throughout the pool stages (most tellingly, costing them the crunch clash against Wales) and their pack have struggled – a weakness the Wallabies just cannot seem to shake.

The concern for England is that they’re untested. They got little other than 10 log points out of the outings against Tonga (35-3) and USA (45-7), the game against Argentina was over as a contest after just 17 minutes, when Tomas Lavanini was red-carded for a dangerous hit on Owen Farrell, and Le Crunch was cancelled due to Typhoon Hagibis. A Wallabies win won’t come as a shock, but all signs point to England emerging victorious.

Prediction: England by eight.

A battle for legacy. An Irish upset would bring a shock end to Steve Hansen’s unrivalled coaching career while it would cement Joe Schmidt, who’s already achieved so much, as Ireland’s greatest-ever mentor as he would simultaneously end the eight-year reign of the All Blacks and guide Ireland to their first-ever World Cup semi-final appearance.

Schmidt has masterminded two historic wins over Hansen’s mighty men – the 40-29 triumph in Chicago in 2016 and the 16-9 victory in Dublin in 2018, the last time they met – and knows he has the kryptonite-like game plan – similar to South Africa’s – to do it again on the biggest stage of them all.

The Irish pack should, at the very least, gain parity up front, and if Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton – arguably the best halfback combination in the world – are on point with their tactical kicking, Irish eyes may well be smiling wider than ever before.

The shock loss to Japan, a consequence of moving away from their conservative, tactical approach, will be long forgotten by the professional Irish outfit. They have an opportunity to do something truly special and their full focus will be on shocking the world.

To do so, it’s paramount that they get off to a good start. The All Blacks tend to be slow starters and the Irish have to capitalise on that small chink in New Zealand’s armour to put pressure on them and hope they fold as they did against France in 1999 and 2007.

The All Blacks are two-time defending champions and favourites for a reason; they’re incredibly well-rounded, take try-scoring opportunities better than any other team in the world and make minimal mistakes. The experience of this so-called “Old Blacks” team will come to the fore in the play-offs and get them over the line in what should be a hard-fought battle on Saturday

Prediction: New Zealand by 10.

The consistent versus the inconsistent. Wales stormed to Six Nations Grand Slam glory to kick-off the year and replicated that consistency to top Pool D with four wins on the trot. They’re yet to hit their straps but showed their championship mettle when they raced into a 26-8 lead and then held on in the face of an Australian onslaught to claim a 29-25 win.

France haven’t shown much to suggest they’ll pull off the upset. Their 23-21 win over Argentina was fortuitous, with officials missing several offside calls and fullback Emiliano Boffelli missing a late penalty, which would’ve sealed victory for the Pumas. There was little for Wales to worry about in the French’s 33-9 win over USA and in their only other outing, they scraped past a Tongan side (23-21) that took a 32-point hiding against England.

History has shown, however, that one can never write off unpredictable Les Bleus. In the same breath, they’ve beaten Wales just once in the past eight years – a 20-8 triumph in Paris in 2017. Matches during this period have generally been close, especially the last two, with Wales squeaking to a 14-13 win in 2018 and a 24-19 victory earlier this year. Logic has never applied to French rugby, but the safe bet is another Welsh win, especially with Dan Biggar set to bolster the Dragons.

Prediction: Wales by nine.

Speed versus strength. Japan have been irrepressible. They’re on an all-time high, qualifying for the quarter-finals for the first time after historic wins over Ireland and Scotland and comprehensive victories over Russia and Samoa. That, coupled with the memory of the famous 34-32 win in Brighton four years ago, will give them all the belief in the world that they can topple the two-time world champions for a second time.

Their magical campaign is much like that of the Springboks in 1995, especially after the devastation caused by Typhoon Hagibis. They have something greater to play for – to inspire those who’ve inspired them, as captain Michael Leitch and coach Jamie Joseph mentioned after last Sunday’s epic win over the Scots.

The heart they’ve shown has been unparalleled, but they’re far more than heart alone. They’re supremely fit, fast and fluid. Their exceptional handling in the tricky conditions has been a cut above the rest and has seen them overwhelm the opposition with seamless phase play. They’ve manned up well physically and have been good in the set-pieces as well, but in that regard, they’re coming up against a different beast altogether in the big, powerful Boks.

Rassie Erasmus’ charges bounced back well after the 23-13 loss to the All Blacks out of the gate, easing to emphatic wins over Namibia (57-3), Italy (49-3) and Canada (66-7), and their forwards-dominated, slow poison game plan is tailor-made to stifle the Brave Blossoms, as highlighted in the 41-7 win in the teams’ World Cup warm-up game. It’ll be anything but easy this time around, though.

The compelling contest comes down to who dictates the pace. If Japan can play their up-tempo game, they could run the Springboks off their feet. On the flip side, if the Springboks play set-piece to set-piece and target the breakdown – specifically, putting a high premium on counter-rucking to slow Japan’s ball down – they should seal their place in the semi-finals. The second scenario is more likely, but the ground-breaking Brave Blossoms will be victors even in defeat.

Prediction: South Africa by 14.

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